Kentucky Derby 2018-Bozos Run for the Roses

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Updated: 05/03/2018

On Saturday, May 5^th, the SportsBozos are heading to Louisville with the BOZO Bankroll intent on cleaning out Churchill Downs by nailing the big score on this years’ Derby.

Twenty colts are entered so this should be a piece of cake. Our loyal readers are fortunate enough to receive the benefit of over 80 combined years of handicapping experience! The Derby is always a very difficult race to predict and this version is no exception. The horses are generally lightly raced so there are fewer races to analyze and to compare one horse against the others. Additionally they have prepared for this race from a half dozen tracks or more, making handicapping very challenging.

Mr. Rosen, our esteemed handicapper and former race horse owner from the Big Apple, has weighed in at 126 lbs. with his invaluable insight into the Most Exciting Two Minutes in Sports.

Every year since Secretariat, an amateur has asked the Head Bozo, “Who is gonna win the Derby, who is the fastest horse? Why don’t you just bet on the fastest horse in the race?” Not so simple my friend!

We like to pour over thousands of numbers and trends, speed figures, jockey and trainer stats, charts and graphs to produce our selections. It’d be way too easy to just bet the fastest horse in the race. It’s time for the inner gambler within every Bozo to needlessly complicate matters as much as possible!

The first thing to do with a field this large is to eliminate the horses that don’t belong here but managed to gain entry based on points earned in the regional prep races. Enjoy your Mint Julep from the Also-ran Clubhouse Box Mr. Owner, we hope your arm candy dons a lovely and extravagant bonnet!

Let’s take the field one-by one from Posts #1 to #20 (there is an also eligible in case of a scratch #21) and then we’ll recommend a couple of wagering strategies from the one and only Mr. Rosen and the Head Bozo himself. Post time Saturday is 6:50 pm. for the 12th race at Churchill Downs.

Firenze Fire (Trainer-Servis/ Jockey-Lopez) ML-50-1 A throw-out from the rail, no early speed so he’ll be outrun early and won’t have enough to rebound late. Won the Sanford last year and the Jerome in January but doesn’t fit here. Gonna get squeezed early, ouch!
Free Drop Billy (Romans/ Alvarado) 30-1 Won the Futurity in Keeneland last October but has done nothing since that time besides a weak 2^nd in the Holly Bull. Disappointed as the favorite in the Gotham, low Beyer speed figures and a lousy effort in the Blue Grass, he’s a class or two below these dudes. Might rally late to finish in the top four or five.
Promises Fulfilled (Romans/ Lanerie) 30-1 Speedster wired the Fountain of Youth but gave way big-time in the Florida Derby, we don’t think he’ll be able to handle 1 ¼ miles. His Pop, Shackleford’s best races were at a mile or less. He’ll finish up the track after flashing some speed early.
Flameaway (Casse/ Lezcano) 30-1 Another speedster who placed second in both the Tampa Bay Derby and most recently in the Blue Grass where he ran out of steam at 1 1/8 miles and gave way to Good Magic. To contend, he’ll have to head-to-head vs. Justify throughout the first half mile and our best guess is he’ll run out of gas trying. His figures aren’t terrible but he’ll fight and then likely spit the bit. He sucked in only try at Churchill Downs.
Audible (Pletcher/ Castellano) 8-1 Florida Derby and Holy Bull winner fits with this group for sure with high Beyer speed figures. Excellent post, tactical speed, he is improving with each race. Pletcher tries to go back-to-back after Always Dreaming won this in 2017. If he doesn’t throw in a clunker, he should be in the picture in the end. Strong possibility. HB thinks he’ll place second.
Good Magic (Brown/ Ortiz) 12-1 Last year’s Breeders Cup Champion as a 2 year old seems to be rounding into form winning the Blue Grass with a perfect trip and a good speed figure. Trainer Chad Brown is very high on his colt, who has worked out well for this race. This son of Curlin should be right in the thick of it. He’ll be one of the few who will finish with a flourish. This is the Head Bozo’s top pick as the thinking here is that his tactical running style and late kick will lead this very talented runner to victory.
Justify (Baffert/ Smith) 3-1 The probable post-time favorite, this guy is speed city, by far the best Beyer numbers (all three last races over 100), however this is his first time leaving California. To win, he’ll be bucking Apollo curse not having raced as a 2 year-old. He certainly will leave the gate fast and may try to wire this field, but he also will get company from inside and outside of him. We think in an insanely large field like this, if he gets behind at all, he might get frustrated and bounce and we don’t think he is worth the short odds. He’s so used to the harder speed favoring surface he raced on when winning the Santa Anita Derby that his inexperience (only 3 races) and new surface may set him back a little. He could be a superstar later this year as he matures. We’ll use him in exotic boxes however just based on sheer talent. Most likely a top 3 finisher but we prefer other possible upsetters at longer odds to finish in the top 2 positions.
Lone Sailor (Amoss/ Graham) 50-1 Local connections placed second in the Louisiana Derby vs. questionable competition. Dead closer with a bullet work last week, however, we like other, more accomplished longshots here.
Hofburg (Mott/ Ortiz) 20-1 This Tapit colt out of a Touch Gold mare is bred to love this distance, ran a great second to Audible in Florida after breaking maiden. Good workouts, limited experience, definitely like him in exotics. If he hits the board, the payoffs will be substantial. A value play for sure.
My Boy Jack (Desormeaux/ Desormeaux) 30-1 Late closer won the Grade 3 Lexington 3 weeks ago, he’s a consistent battler but will have to navigate a traffic jam at the top of the stretch. He’ll make a strong wide late run but he may be too far back to rally in time to hit the board.
Bolt D’Oro (Ruis/ Espinoza) 8-1 Future book favorite, this super talented horse is shipping out of Southern California for the first time. He always runs hard and always gives a top effort. Owns the second best speed figures. We are concerned that he may have been used up in a tough spring campaign vs. Justify and Mackinzie on the hard tracks out west. Million dollar earner should be right in the thick of it but we’re predicting him to come up short a little with this inexperienced trainer. No way will we take less than 8-1 with him. Hard to pass at 10-1 or more. Another one to keep an eye on for later in the year after he gets a much deserved rest after this.
Enticed (McLaughlin/ Alvarado) 30-1 Should get great odds here with this Gotham winner who also did not disgrace himself in the Wood placing to Vino Rosso. Medaglia D’Oro colt out of a Mineshaft mare should love the distance, we like him as a definite win candidate. Should sit mid-pack and have a good closing kick. He could be in an exciting stretch battle for sure and might be in a photo over Vino Rosso. Mr. Rosen’s place horse.
Bravazo (Lukas/ Contreras) 50-1 Last race was a dud, but prior to that won the G2 Risen Star. Low figures, not too much to like. If he tries to get into a speed duel, it could spell the end of him early.
Mendelssohn (O’Brien/ Moore) 5-1 UAE Derby winner and BC Juvenile Turf winner from last year travels 10K miles for this. Turf bred will have to prove it to us first as this is a lot to ask as the competition stiffens. Looking elsewhere as the trips from Ireland to California to Dubai and then Kentucky may have taken a lot out of him.
Instilled Regard (Hollendorfer/ Van Dyke) This guy is a couple of levels below this competition, lost last race to Justify by 10 lengths. Ain’t gonna happen.
Magnum Moon (Pletcher/ Saez) 6-1 Undefeated (4-4) winner who wired the Arkansas Derby is working well for this. Well bred (Malibu Moon) colt has shown no weakness, he can rate off the lead or contend for it. Definitely a serious player here. Have to give him a reasonable chance and this post has produced some success here in the past. Should get your moneys worth backing this guy.
Solomini (Baffert/ Prat) 30-1 Another colt sired by Curlin, last season’s highly regarded Baffert prodigy, the colt disappointed in last two vs. Magnum Moon. Great value if he can turn the tables on his Oaklawn foe. Not out of it by any means. Great value at high odds!
Vino Rosso (Pletcher/ Velasquez) 12-1 Trainer/ Jockey combination doesn’t get any better than this. Solid score in the Wood over Enticed earning strong figure, he loved Aqueduct. Mr. Rosen’s pick to get this improving youngster’s photo taken in the Winners Circle!
Noble Indy (Pletcher/ Geroux) 30-1 Winner of 3 of 4 including the Louisiana Derby might be the Pletcher barn’s second string. Has run into some trouble during races, might be better suited for the Preakness in two weeks in Baltimore with this brutal #19 post.
Combatant (Asmussen/ Santana) 50-1 Late runner with an incredibly difficult post and task ahead of him. Probably a notch below this group, this consistent fella would need loads of racing luck to prevail here, so we prefer others.
Blended Citizen (O’Neill/ Frey) 50-1 Late runner doesn’t’ really stack up well in this spot, he’ll be a surprise if he finishes in the top 10. Sorry Charlie!

Mr. Rosen’s thinks the Key prep race is the Wood, Here are his Bozo Selections:

1st- 18-Vino Rosso

2nd- 12-Enticed

3rd- 16-Magnum Moon

Trifecta (top 3 any order) and Superfecta (top 4 any order) Boxes: 18-12-16-5-6

The Wood appears to Mr. Rosen to have been the strongest prep race so hence the top two picks.

Throw in undefeated Magnum Moon, and recent prep winners Audible and Good Magic for a solid box that will pay nicely when he cashes in. This is not a bet to win and place type race, there are too many horses so it makes sense to spread out the wagers among several horses that offer good value and hope for the best.

Head Bozo’s Juggernaut picks:

1st- 6-Good Magic

2nd- 5-Audible

3rd- 7-Justify

Exacta and Trifecta Boxes: 5-6-7-16, 5-6-9-12, 6-7-11-17

HB is keying top choice Good Magic in all 3 boxes with both Audible and Justify in two of the other three boxes. Talent and consistency is what we are going for. For some longshots with potential that have great value, we’ll be rooting for the solid Magnum Moon, the talented Bolt D’Oro, Enticed for the value, and big bombs Hofburg and Solomini just in case. If the last two hit the board and we get the trifecta or the exacta, the payoff(s) will be astronomical.

May the Horse be with you!

-HB