The Preakness-The Second Jewel

The Second Jewel of the Thoroughbred Racing Triple Crown is upon us with the 143rd running of The Preakness, run annually two weeks after the Kentucky Derby at Baltimore’s Pimlico Racetrack. Justify will continue his quest for the Triple Crown as the heavy favorite after dominating 19 rivals in the Derby. Only seven other contenders have decided to take on Bob Baffert’s muscular 1270 pound Chestnut colt, three that survived the Derby and four newcomers. The Head Bozo happily collected on the  7-6-5  Trifecta Box and on the 7-6 Exacta Box in the Derby and hopes to continue to ride the wave.

In a field of only 8 with a heavy favorite, it’s somewhat challenging to create a viable money making strategy, but the Head Bozo and Mr. Rosen will take a crack at it. Wagering $200 on Justify to win to make an $80-$100 profit is not going to fly. Also. Taking a Justify (1-2) – Good Magic (3-1) exacta might pay a ridiculously low $6-$7 for a $2 bet so straight up exacta chalk betting is out. If the results are the same as the Derby, so be it. Real horseplayers do not bet the obvious, they seek out value. For instance, if your evaluation is that a horse should be 5-1 in a race and he is going off at 15-1 then that horse is a value play, regardless of whether or not you think he will win. FYI Eddie the Chalk Olczyk who hit the trifecta in the Derby is playing the 7-5-1. Rain and a muddy track is expected come 6:48pm post time Saturday.

The Bozos analyzed the six other entries besides Justify and Good Magic (all at long odds) and have formulated some exotics that should  be worth the risk and pay-off.

1. Quip (Brisset/ Geroux) 12-1  Tampa Bay Derby winner at 19-1 could challenge Justify for the lead as he did sizing up Magnum Moon in his fading place run in the Arkansas Derby but that would just be silly as if he did, he’d likely burn out and tire doing so. He is rested as he skipped the Derby and he’ll probably be the third choice however we don’t like him for second at less than 15-1. We’ll use him for second and third in exotics depending on the odds.
2. Lone Sailor (Amoss/ I. Ortiz) 15-1  Majestic Warrior colt closed very strong to only lose by a neck to Noble Indy in the Louisiana Derby but bested 5th place Derby finisher My Boy Jack. The trainer would not send Lone Sailor to Pimlico unless he believed he had a reasonable chance. He handled the mud fine while being “stymied” in the Derby closing for 8th. Both Mr. Rosen and I are going to play him at 15 to 20-1 for second and third in exotics. We really like his potential to close down the stretch. Mr. Rosen has him to win in a few scenarios.
3. Sporting Chance (Lukas/ Contreras) 30-1 He raced evenly for third in the Blue Grass but he seemed to peak last fall as a 2 year-old. He’ll probably try to keep up with Justify early and bury his chances. We’re going to throw him out.
4. Diamond King (Servis/ Castellano) 30-1 The local prep Tesio winner always finds his way into this field and with some success historically. A consistent pace setter, however we feel he’s in too deep here with these fellas. Pass.
5. Good Magic (Brown/ J. Ortiz) 3-1 HB’s Derby pick fought hard with Justify and survived late vs. Audible to finish second in the Run for The Roses. He proudly ran a terrific race against a potential superstar to get sloppy seconds. He’s back for another try as the solid 3-1 second choice here. He’s reliably consistent, the 2 year-old champ has hit the board in all 6 races and is the obvious main threat to the Derby winner. We are going to use him on top of Justify in an Exacta and a couple of trifectas to try to get a decent price in case the scenario unfolds where Good Magic upsets Justify.
6. Tenfold (Asmussen/Santana) 20-1  Curlin colt is lightly raced  and finished fifth in his only Stakes try in the Arkansas Derby. He has some decent breeding and may like the mud. His mudder’s mudder was a mudder! He’ll be used lightly in the back end on a couple of triples.
7. Justify (Baffert/ Smith) 1-2 What can we say that hasn’t been said about this terrific young star in the making and potential Triple Crown winner? Again, he is the obvious choice and maybe deserves his odds-on morning line after his Derby performance, however true handicappers understand the risk vs. reward in backing the heavy favorite. That said, we think he’ll finish first and will use some longshots in the place position and also use him for second to Good Magic.  His speed figures dwarf the others with the exception of Good Magic.
8. Bravazo (Lukas/ Saez) 20-1 The second and strongest of Lukas’ two entries in the race, Bravazo ran above expectations to finish 6th in the Derby despite going off at odds of 67-1. After being bumped early he rallied to close well to pass most of the tiring horses in the Churchill Downs stretch. We think he could pick up some cash finishing third.

Head Bozo: $90 Wager

$5 Trifecta 7/1-2-5/1-2-5-6-8   =$60

$20 Exacta 5-7                             =$20

$5 Trifecta 5/7/1-2                      =$10

Mr.. Rosen struck out in the Derby however he is coming back strong in the Preakness. He believes Lone Sailor and Quip will take to the Pimlico sloppy surface. Lone Sailor  specifically did not disgrace himself in his Derby effort after being subjected to traffic problems a couple of times. Justify’s speed will be tough to beat but a fast pace should set it up for a strong finish from Lone Sailor. The speed horses that challenge Justify early should falter late in the race.

Mr. Rosen: $96 Wager-

$2 Trifecta Box 1-2-5-7                =$48

$4 Trifecta 2-7/2-7/ All               =$48

May the horse be with you! Enjoy!

-HB