The Difficulty of (Justify) Winning the Triple Crown

As we all know, on Saturday June 9^th, Justify will attempt to become just the 13^th horse in history to win the Triple Crown (the Kentucky Derby, the Preakness and the Belmont Stakes). There have been 99 seasons where all three races have been run with Sir Barton in 1919 the first horse to win all three.

Four horses won in the 1940’s, then there was a 25 year gap between Citation’s 1948 Triple Crown and Secretariat’s win in 1975. After Seattle Slew swept the series in 1977 and Affirmed beat Alydar in all three contests in 1978, there was another large gap of 37 years before Bob Baffert’s American Pharoah broke through three years ago in 2015.   If Justify takes the Belmont, Baffert will become the second trainer to have two horses win the Triple Crown, tying “Sunny” Jim Fitzsimmons, who won in 1930 with Gallant Fox and in 1935 with Omaha.

In the 35 years between 1979 and 2014 thirteen horses won both the Kentucky Derby and Preakness Stakes, but either failed to win the Belmont Stakes or could not start in the race, and again, only one has captured the Crown. Of those, Real Quiet came the closest to winning the Triple Crown, losing the Belmont Stakes by a nose in 1998. Spectacular Bid finished 3rd in 1979.  Pleasant Colony finished 3rd in 1981. Alysheba finished 4th in 1987. Sunday Silence finished 2nd in 1989. Real Quiet finished 2nd in 1998. Charismatic finished 3rd in 1999. War Emblem finished 8th in 2002. Funny Cide finished 3rd in 2003. Smarty Jones finished 2nd in 2004. Big Brown did not finish in 2008. I’ll Have Another did not start (injury) in2012. California Chrome finished 4^thin 2014. When Chrome lost to Tonalist, who did not race in either the Derby or the Preakness, his owner complained that it wasn’t fair for a horse like Tonalist  not to compete in the prior two legs and “come off the bench” to challenge in the Belmont. There may be some merit to this, however it is the true test of the Champion to take on all comers in all the races.

As statistically difficult as it is to capture all three races, more to the point is that 20, 30 and 40 plus years ago, horses were trained much differently, they raced much more frequently as a two year old and leading up to the Derby may have had 10-12 races under their belt. The recent trend is to only have 2-3 races late in the 2 year old season and maybe 2-4 prep races leading up to the Derby. The spacing between races is far greater now than when they ran every two weeks or so, now these 2 and 3 year old run every 5-6 weeks, some with even longer spaces between races. They are treated like the expensive breeding commodities they potentially are. Justify is undefeated in his five races, all as a three year old.

The Preakness is run two only weeks after the Derby and the Belmont is run just three weeks after that, so the jamming of three races into five weeks is something these colts are simply not accustomed to do. Justify did not even run as a two year old and the Belmont will be his sixth race in his career in a span of only 16 weeks. He is still learning and maturing and gaining experience. His Beyer speed figures have regressed in each of his last two races after earning a 107 in the Santa Anita Derby. In Kentucky he ran a 103 and in Baltimore, a 97. Naturally, a handicapper wants to see an improvement in these figures. Additionally, Justify has never run close to the one and a half mile distance of the Belmont. It appeared he was tiring at the end of the 1 3/16 mile Preakness as he was almost nailed at the wire by both Bravazo and Tenfold, who, by the way, are both in this race. Justify’s trainer Bob Baffert won the Triple Crown with American Pharoah three years ago but lost the Belmont and the Triple Crown with Silver Charm in 1997, Real Quiet in 1998 and War Emblem in 2002. Even though Justify may be the best horse, the Triple Crown may be too much to expect of him. He is due to regress or maybe be tired from the short spaced recent grueling campaign, remember the first two legs were run on a sloppy track and Justify had to expend lots of energy. Maybe a fresher horse could be expected to launch a late bid against Justify down the home stretch that seems to never end at Belmont. One more thing, his breeding (Scat Daddy-Stage Magic)is suspect to stay strong for a full 1 ½ miles. If Justify does capture the second Triple Crown in three years, then it will be an unprecedented achievement that could only be attained by a Superhorse.

Although Justify will be the heavy, odds-on favorite (probably 4-5 or less), the Bozos feel the odds are actually stacked against him to complete this monumental feat.

-HB