Sportsbozos Analyzes The 150th Belmont Stakes- Justify’s Quest for the Triple Crown

Handicapping Analysis for the 150th Belmont Stakes  6/9/2018

1. Justify (Baffert/ Smith) 4-5 He is a well-deserved favorite on paper going for the Triple Crown after outracing 2 year old Champ Good Magic in the Derby and The Preakness and holding off hard charging Bravazo and Tenfold at Pimlico. Although he is going for his sixth win to remain undefeated, there are some potential knocks against him in this race. His last two races have been progressively worse from a Beyer speed figure standpoint. His breeding (Scat Daddy) suggests he may not want all of a mile and a half. He is a front-runner in a race that prefers stalkers. If he doesn’t get a fast start from the rail, he could be unaccustomed to playing catch-up and expend too much energy early. He has never been to Belmont. He seemed to tire in the slop in his last race. Third start in 5 weeks. The Bozos are thinking he might take a step backwards here and at these odds, we are going to come up with a strategy that pays off when he falters down the big stretch in New York. We think he’ll hit the board but he definitely is a vulnerable favorite.
2. Free Drop Billy (Romans/ Albarado) 30-1   41 lengths behind Justify in his last start in the Derby and hasn’t seen the winners circle since last October. He’s not a bad horse but to win this race is realistically above his level of ability. We’re passing.
3. Bravazo (Lukas/ Saez) 8-1   Lukas’s colt closed well in the foggy stretch to get second to Justify in the Preakness three weeks ago. Like Justify, this is his third race in the last 5 weeks and he may have left his best effort on the track in Baltimore. It was very impressive to see him storming down the stretch and if the race was another 15-20 yards longer, he may have caught the winner. He is tempting at odds of 8-1 or better but the HB is leaning on looking at fresher competitors here. Might get up for the show money.
4. Hofburg (Mott/ I. Ortiz) 9-2   Intriguing fella who has been training very well up in Saratoga for this race, he is also lightly raced as he skipped the Preakness after closing well to finish seventh in the Derby. Hofburg was a good second to Audible in the Florida Derby in only his third start and is bred (Tapit) to handle the distance of the Belmont. He looks like the second choice in early wagering and he is fresh and looks well pointed to this task. The Bozos and Mr. Rosen think he’ll be right there at the finish line however at relatively short odds, the value isn’t as good as expected.
5. Restoring Hope (Baffert/ Geroux) 30-1   Justify’s trainer’s second entry in this field, he has only a maiden win on Groundhog Day to his credit. He finished third to Vino Rosso and Enticed in the Wood then got smoked in a mile race on the Derby undercard. Decently bred for distance, however this dude in up against it today and the Bozos are going to pass on him here.
6. Gronkowski (Brown/ J. Ortiz) 12-1   British invader named for the big tight end will have Lasix for his first start in the U.S. after scratching in the Derby. He’s a big guy with a top trainer and jockey but will be trying dirt for the first time. He’s a Wild Card.
7. Tenfold (Asmussen/ Santana) 12-1 This colt is making only his fifth start and is bred really well (Curlin) and finished exceptionally well in the Preakness after getting banged around halfway through. Who could tell in that fog? He still hasn’t seen Belmont and has not a stakes win to his credit but the Bozos like him at double digit odds to fill out the back end of exotics. It wouldn’t be a complete surprise to see this guy rambling down the stretch in hot pursuit.
8. Vino Rosso (Pletcher/ Velasquez)   8-1   Mr. Rosen’s Derby pick is back! Rested after a dismal showing in the Derby, the well-bred Wood winner and locally trained competitor is here to thwart Baffert’s Triple Crown celebration. He’ll get some support at the windows and could rebound and win this or at least pick up a piece of the pie.
9. Noble Indy (Pletcher/ Castellano) 30-1 Pletcher’s second entrant kicked some butt in an impressive Louisiana Derby before disappearing in Kentucky. His Grandpa (A.P. Indy) won this in ’92 and his stalking style suits this race. He has two recent bullet works on the track as well. At monstrous odds, he deserves to be considered to hit the board and we’ll have him in our exotics.
10. Blended Citizen (O’Neill/ Frey) 15-1 A newcomer to the Triple Crown wars, he comes in here of an impressive win when he shipped in for the Peter Pan over this track four weeks prior. He drew away from favorite Just Whistle and rallied down the stretch. While he will have to improve significantly to win this, the Head Bozo believes the race and a solid workout over the track moves him up. Previously with A.P. Indy in ’92, Colonial Affair in ‘93 and more recently, Tonalist in ‘14, the Peter Pan-Belmont angle has proved a lucrative combination wagering on this race. The Head Bozo is including him at odds nearing 20-1 on his tickets.

A quick but important note on this race. Win Star Farm’s Florida Derby winning Audible finished a hard closing third in the Derby and was held out of the Preakness and now he is being held out of the Belmont to “focus on races later in the summer”. Win Star just happens to also own Justify and Audible would have loomed as his primary competition. The notion that he is not training well is a joke and is more than suspicious that he is being held out for that. Justify’s already sold breeding rights increase from $60 million to $85 million if he wins the Belmont, so it’s understandable Win Star would hold him out, however the Triple Crown winner should ideally face the best 3 year old competition regardless of profit motive. We call BS that Audible is not running and that if Justify wins it taints the Triple Crown achievement.

 Mr. Rosen has $84 lying around and loves the #4 horse Hofburg to steal this one. He is boxing Hofburg with Justify and Noble Indy for a $3 (1-4-9) Trifecta Box for $18. He also is singling Hofburg on top in a $2 Triple Part-wheel (4/1-7-8-9/1-7-8-9) for $24 and a $1 Superfecta (4/1-9/1-8-9/1-7-8-9/all) for $42.

The Head Bozo is playing triples with his top 3 horses on top: Hofburg, Vino Rosso and Blended Citizen with those 3 plus Justify, Tenfold and Noble Indy for second and all of those plus Bravazo for third.

If any of these triples come in without Justify in first, the payout should be pretty, pretty, pretty good. If he is out of the money, then the payout will be real and spectacular!

$1 Trifecta 4-8-10/ 1-4-7-8-9-10/ 1-3-4-7-8-9-10          $75

-HB