Travers- Saratoga’s Midsummer Derby- Sportsbozos Race Analysis

The best 3 year-olds still in training take center stage at historic Saratoga Race Course Saturday August 25^th for the $1.25 million 1 1/4 mile Travers Stakes. Viewing is available on NBC from 4-6 pm with post time scheduled for 5:44 pm. Dating back to 1864, this is America’s oldest major thoroughbred race.

Eventual Horse of the Year and Triple Crown winner Justify has retired to stud and his main rival Audible is sidelined due to injury, however two-year old Champ Good Magic, fresh off his Haskell victory and Kentucky Derby second place finish is in town and has been named the 2-1 favorite for this very competitive race.

Gronkowski, the second favorite at 4-1, who rallied for 2^nd behind Justify at 25-1 in the Belmont Stakes, is back to challenge other Triple Crown participants, Tenfold, Bravazo and Vino Rosso for the Man O’War Cup. Chad Brown trains both of the top two morning line favorites.

Wonder Gadot, the first filly entered since 1979, looms an interesting presence in the race. No filly has won the race since 1914. She has been installed as the third favorite at 5-1 off her victories in the first two legs of the Canadian filly Triple Crown, the Queens Plate and the Prince of Wales. Taking on the boys in a race of this magnitude is not an easy task but she has been working well at Saratoga under trainer Mark Casse’s direction and has the recent speed figures to be a menace to the boys.

1. Trigger Warning (30-1) The Mike Rone trained shipper has some early speed but hasn’t proved he can hold his speed this far. Second in the Grade 3 Indiana Derby, it would be a major upset if he jumped up in class and won this race setting the pace. Bozos pass.
2. Wonder Gadot (5-1) Filly will be bet down so the value won’t be there considering the historic hurdle she will have to make to win. She has finished in the money in all eight of her starts this year, albeit vs. other fillies, so we know she runs a consistent race. This feat is daunting, however the Bozos could see her hitting the board.
3. Gronkowski (4-1) Besides the rally for second in the Belmont, this horse, named for the Pats TE, is somewhat of an unknown, as his prior races have been on grass in Great Britain. He is a potential challenger if he runs back to his last race, and has a nice closing kick, so it’d be no surprise to see him flying down the stretch. Like the filly in the adjacent gate, the Bozos can see him hitting the board.
4. Bravazo (12-1) Placed in both the Haskell and the Preakness, this Lukas trained plodder will be praying for rain. The Bozos think that if the track is dry that Bravazo may have worn down after nine races this year and not have his best stuff.
5. Vino Rosso (10-1) Pletcher’s charge ran his best in the spring but has regressed in his last three tries. Even Mr. Rosen has given up on him.
6. Meistermind (30-1) Outclassed colt lost an allowance race after breaking his maiden in June. Longest shot on the board, the Bozos will draw a line through his name.
7. King Zachary (15-1) This son of Curlin is a Grade 3 winner but this race is a little above his pay grade after a slow 4^th in the Indiana Derby as the favorite. Bozos will take a small flyer on this dude because of the way he romped with a 98 Beyer figure two races back at Churchill.
8. Mendelssohn (12-1) Very well bred colt wowed them all in Dubai, winning by 18 lengths in March then refused to compete from the 20 hole in the Derby. The Bozos are betting that after a decent Dwyer seven weeks ago where he set the pace nicely, that he returns to his potential and gives Good Magic a run for his money. At odds of 10-1 or more, the star of the desert offers excellent value. We’ll play him on top with Good Magic and in 2^nd and 3^rd in some exotics.
9. Good Magic (2-1) $3 Million earner is absolutely deserving of favoritism against this bunch. Fresh off a convincing Haskell victory, the Derby runner-up is looking to take control of the 3 year-old division in the absence of Justify. The Bozos are confident that we’ll get another solid effort out of him, which is all you can really ask for. We’ll put him on top with Mendelssohn and Gronkowski and Wonder Gadot for 2^nd and 3^rd.
10. Tenfold (8-1) Curlin’s boy won the Jim Dandy while being erratically wide down the stretch but there was not much competition in the Travers prep. He’s fast but might not last as he tired going longer. He’s dangerous but the Bozos are going to concentrate on horses that run in a relatively straight line.
11. Catholic Boy (8-1) Another well bred colt who poses a serious threat here. However his outside post hurts him and four of his five wins have come on the grass. We can’t understand why his trainer would put him back on dirt after having so much turf success. In his last dirt race, he bombed in the Florida Derby. It’s very confusing having to decide what to do with him. We’re going to throw him in some trifectas and exactas on the back end in case he runs to his superior pedigree.The key to the Bozo wagering strategy is for Mendelssohn to run 1^st or 2^nd at 10-1 and Good Magic up for 2^nd. The reverse exacta has a nice payout as well. Wonder Gadot and Gronkowski finishing 1-2 works as long as Good Magic is in the exacta.

The 9-8-2-3-11 strategy

Bozo Bets:

$1 Triple 8-9/ 2-3-8-9-11/2-3-7-8-9-11     $32

$5 Exacta Box 8-9            $10

$2 Exacta Box 2-3-9-11   $24

$2 Exacta Box 8-9/ 2-3    $16