Dodgers are the Bozo’s call in World Series

LA in 6 or 7

Not just because well, the Red Sox are the Red Sox, and no baseball fan from New York can handle seeing Boston celebrate another World Series victory, it’s the matchups and the odds that lead the Bozos to this carefully calculated decision.

LA was 16-26 back in May and were counted out by all the pundits to even make the playoffs. They charged back and played basically playoff baseball all of September to win a 163^rd game against the Rockies to qualify to play Atlanta, who they trounced 3 games to 1 in the first round. They then beat Milwaukee in game 7 on the road. They are battle tested for sure!

Boston, in winning a franchise record 108 games, breezed through the season without being challenged. They lost only one game each to the Yankees and Astros to reach the Series. They have yet to play a game with their backs against the Wall, or Green Monster, if you will.

The Sox bullpen is suspect, and although the Dodgers aren’t the most prolific hitting team, they should be able to capitalize on the middle inning Boston relievers. Ryan Brasier, the choke artist and unreliable Joe Kelly will be victimized by the likes of NL Series MVP Cody Bellinger and all around good guys Manny Machado and Yasiel Puig.

The Sox won’t be able to use the DH in LA and might have to move RF Mookie Betts to an uncomfortable 2^nd base. Clayton Kershaw, who starts Game 1 vs. Chris “Belly button Ring” Sale, is only 9-8 in the post season, and the law of probability that Kershaw shines in this series is on his side.

The Sox have won in 2004, 2007 and most recently in 2013. LA has not captured the World Series since 1988 when Kirk Gibson dramatically blasted the game winning HR against Dennis Eckersley and the Oakland A’s. Again, the “Due” theory is in play here. Thirty years is enough!

So besides the clutch late season Dodgers being battle tested, the weak Boston middle relief and Kershaw, LA has more reliable starters with Ryu, Hill and Wood matching up favorably against Nathan Eovaldi, Rick Porcello and the overpaid and underwhelming David Price.

I always like taking the road team in The 7 game World Series because of the three games in the middle, in this case, those 3 will be played in LA. If the Dodgers can win just one of two in Boston, and with Kershaw and Ryu against Sale and Price, that’s a high probability, they come home for three straight tied 1-1. Taking 2 of 3 at home shouldn’t be too much to ask, then they fly back to Boston needing only to win one of the two remaining games. Kershaw on the Hill in game 7!

The Series prices are Boston -160, LA +130. Betting $100 to win $130 on the Dodgers to beat the Sox may look like a bargain, however I sincerely doubt if the Dodgers win, they will sweep or win in five. And no way am I risking $160 to win $100 on the Sox.

Therefor taking the Dodgers to win in 6 or 7 games provides a valuable payoff. Both of these pay 5-1 or +500.

$100 on LA in six = $500-$100= +$400

$100 on LA in seven =$500-$100= +$400

So, if Boston wins, we’re out $200 but if LA wins (in 6 or 7) we score a $400 profit or 2-1, Obviously 2-1 is better than +$130.

One other important and nostalgic fact: My Dad, the Ribber, worked with and was good friends with former Dodger announcer Vin Scully from their days in the booth in 1950s Brooklyn, and he and my parents remained friends for many years. It would be nice to give Vinny one last thrill. Even though he is not broadcasting any longer, at 91, he still bleeds Dodger Blue and deserves to see a Dodger World Series victory for the first time in 30 years.

Oh, and take the under in Game 1 in chilly Boston (7 1/2). Kershaw vs. Sale, maybe not a lot of runs!

-HB