SportsBozos
SportsBozos
Home / Ramblings and Gamblings / Sportsbozos Handicap the 2018 Breeders Cup Classic

Sportsbozos Handicap the 2018 Breeders Cup Classic

On Saturday, Nov. 3rd, 2018, the $6 Million Breeders Cup Classic will be run at Churchill Downs in Louisville, KY in the season ending Championship race featuring 3 year-olds and up running 1 ¼ miles on the dirt. NBC will have the race, post time is 5:44 EST.

Please listen to the Sportsbozos.com Podcast featuring the Head Bozo and the Cincinnati Kid, John McElhenny on

www.sportsbozos.com/podcast/

This is a fantastic race to handicap, however, unfortunately, probable Horse of the Year Justify has been retired to stud after his six straight wins and his May-June Triple Crown conquest. Although the absence of Justify takes some of the drama out of the Classic, the race still shapes up to be an exciting and competitive race. Bob Baffert has two main contenders, McKinzie and West Coast ready to take on the favorite, John Sadler’s Accelerate, a California standout this year.

Here are the 14 entries with comments from the Head Bozo.

    1.    Thunder Snow 12-1 Snow drifts in from Ireland this week. Consistent sort is owned by the Godolphin cartel, this $8 million winner easily captured the Dubai Classic in March, then after a layoff, in his 2nd start back, placed in the G1 Jockey Club Gold Cup to Discreet Lover. He should sit behind the pace and make a late run and may very well get a piece of the pie here. Great odds make him a value play. He has finished 1st or 2nd five times in six races on dirt at this distance.
    2.    Roaring Lion 20-1 The knock on him is that he has never run on dirt and is only 3 years old. He’ll also spot the field a number of lengths before setting upon a late charge. Solid European turfer has won 5 out of 8 this year but to win this, may be asking too much.
    3.    Catholic Boy 8-1 Unusual training strategy as he has won the G1 Belmont Derby on turf and the G1 Travers on dirt in his last two starts, both at this distance. He is improving as he is only 3 and would be no surprise if he wins. Decent odds makes for another value play. The Vatican extends it’s blessing.
    4.    Gunnevera 20-1 This 4 year-old with only two wins is a cut below the competition in this race.
    5.    Lone Sailor 30-1 He is a solid 3 year-old but has never been in the money at this distance and his speed figures are way too slow to compete with this group. Good evening Mr. Benson.
    6.    McKinzie 6-1 This Baffert trained California colt has won 4 out of 5 in his career but has never tried 1 ¼ miles or been to Kentucky. He ran a stellar G1 Pennsylvania Derby a month ago and is definitely a contender. Interestingly, Jockey Mike Smith decided to pilot this dude instead of the talented West Coast. Hmmmmmm.
    7.  West Coast 5-1 He finished 3rd in this race last year and came back after a long layoff to finish 2nd to the favorite Accelerate last month in his prep for this and may have been the better of the two. He was the 3 year old Champ in 2017 so he deserves to be considered a main threat here. He beat Arrogate, so that tells you something!
    8.    Pavel 20-1 Pavel looks to be a notch below this level and has never won in 5 tries at this distance. DJT is banking on the Russian to infiltrate the race.
    9.  Mendelssohn 12-1 An 18 length winner in Dubai in March, this speedy colt will make his presence known early in this battle. The question is, will he be able to repel the challenge of the many, older, and more experienced horses to win the Classic? Who could know? Oy!
    10. Yoshida 10-1 This turf specialist from Japan tries his second start on dirt and his first at this distance. He surprisingly won the Woodward at 1 1/8 miles but there is a distance question of whether or not he can handle an extra 1/8 of a mile. It would surprise me if he can pull this off. He’s already made enough money so he doesn’t have to worry about being turned into hamburger meat if his performance is lacking.
    11. Mind Your Biscuits 6-1  He participated in the 6f Sprint last Breeders Cup and here he is in this year’s Classic. Biscuits has improved with age and distance and has put up among the best speed figures in the field. He won a G3 prep race at Churchill at 1 1/8 miles and is stretching out for the first time. He has finished an impressive first or second 18/24 tries. I’m not counting him out. My 3rd choice.
    12. Axelrod 30-1 Axe looked good in his last start gamely losing to McKinzie, however prior to that is more of a G3 type horse and is not quite talented enough to win against these foes. Short this baby. I smell last place.
    13. Discreet Lover 20-1 He surprised in the Gold Cup to win at 45-1 but before that was 6/43 lifetime. Lover doesn’t really have enough speed to keep up in this pace scenario and the odds that he can repeat his last race are stacked against him. He’ll be exposed
    14. Accelerate 5-2 The Big guy posted a 115 Beyer Speed Figure in his Pacific Classic win at this distance two races back. He has won three in a row and 5 of 7 and is 3 out of 4 at this distance. Logically, he is the favorite here and anything 5/2 or better is a square payout. If not for Justify, this Cali based horse would be Horse of the Year. Although he starts from the way outside, he possesses the tactical speed to be in contention throughout and to launch his charge in time to hit the wire in front. Appropriately titled, watch this monster kick into gear coming round the turn.

Bozos Wagering Strategy

West Coast and Accelerate are the class of this field. One or both of them should be in a position to get to the wire first. I would love to see them duke it out for the last couple of hundred yards! Mind Your Biscuits has the Beyer numbers to make this interesting. Catholic Boy, after that Travers is a horse that can’t be ignored while McKinzie is the hot horse and deserves some action. Thunder Snow is as consistent as they come and as mentioned, provides value.

We have narrowed it down to 6 contenders with the top 3 being:

7-West Coast

14-Accelerate

11- Mind Your Biscuits

These three we are playing in a $4  Exacta Box with an extra $2 Exacta Box with 7-14.

We are going to play three $2 4-horseTriple Boxes with these three and

3-Catholic Boy

6-McKinzie

1-Thunder Snow

 $2 Exacta Box (7-14)                   $4

$4 Exacta Box (7-11-14)             $24

$2 Triple Box (7-14-11-3)          $24

$2 Triple Box (7-14-11-6)          $24

$2 Triple Box (7-14-11-1)          $24

Total Wager $100

(HB has a Future bet on Accelerate for $10 at 4-1)

Enjoy and listen to the Podcast- starting Thursday night.

-HB

 

 

 

 

SportsBozos