NFL Playoff Scenario and Week 12 Wrap-Up

After this weekend’s games with only five games to play in the regular season, the playoff scenarios are starting to come clear. Nine teams are almost sure locks to make the tournament, as Bill Parcells would say. The Rams and the Chiefs, who both had a bye week after their insanely high scoring (105 points) game are certainly qualifiers and most likely division winners. Chicago outplayed the hapless Lions 23-16 on Thanksgiving and moved to the top of the NFC North at (8-3). Also on Turkey Day, the (10-1) Saints buried Atlanta 31-17 to increase their lead to four games over Carolina in the NFC South. NO is sure to get a bye and most likely home field throughout the post-season.

The Vikings (6-4-1) took temporary control of the first wild card spot in the NFC with a division win against Aaron Rodgers’ struggling GB Packers Sunday night, 24-17. GB had their run to the playoffs extinguished as they fell to (4-6-1). Seattle’s Russell Wilson led a late drive against the Panthers to win in Charlotte, 30-27 and move into a tie with Carolina, Washington and Dallas at (6-5).

In the AFC, NE (8-3) overcame a tight first half to pull away from the Jets 27-14 and extend their lead in the AFC East to 3 games over Miami (5-6), who blew a ten point lead losing to Andrew Luck and the Colts 27-24 on Adam Vinatieri’s game winning FG. Dolphins coach Adam Gase’s conservative play calling trying not to lose prevented a victory instead as he called for runs twice late in the game on 3^rd and long and settled for punts. Luck and the Colts are on fire and drove down the field to tie and then secure the win. The Colts are surely in the hunt for the wild card at (6-5) after winning their 5^th straight.

Denver (5-6) intercepted Big Ben in the end zone in the last minute to upset Pittsburgh 24-17 as the Steelers dropped to (7-3-1). Pittsburgh still has a hold on the AFC North with a 1 ½ game lead over the (6-5) Ravens who again won their game using the legs of Lamar Jackson in dominating the Raiders 34-17 in Baltimore.

The Chargers, who now hold the 5^th seed at (8-3), clobbered Arizona 45-10 and head to the Steel City to take on Pittsburgh in an important AFC matchup with playoff implications. The team formerly from San Diego may be without leading rusher Melvin Gordon.

The Texans (8-3) won their 8^th straight after starting (0-3) over Tennessee Monday night 34-17 to maintain their two game lead over the Colts.

Besides the nine most probable playoff spots secured as of Week 12, these seven teams are the contenders for the remaining three positions. The Cowboys and Redskins are tied atop the NFC Least at (6-5) after Dallas beat Washington Thursday 31-23. Philly, after the Giants folded horribly, after being down 19-3, rallied to win 25-22 to move to (5-6). Only a game back, the Eagles could conceivably win the division as they play the Skins twice and Dallas once in their next five games. A wild card will not emerge from this division.

Carolina, at (6-5) is still in the hunt for the wild cards with easily winnable games the next two weeks against Tampa and Cleveland. Seattle, who just beat the Panthers, are a strong contender for a wild card, are also (6-5) and their schedule looks promising with two games against the (2-9) 49ers and the season finale home against the (2-9) Cardinals.

Indianapolis is our pick to make the 6^th and final playoff spot in the AFC. At (6-5), winners of five in a row, and Andrew Luck playing amazingly well after his return from injury, the Colts could secure that last spot with a win over the G-men at home in week 16.

The Ravens at (6-5) will contest the final AFC wild card with the Colts. They have the Falcons, Bucs and Browns, all under .500 to deal with.

Outside looking in if things go their way are the (5-6) Broncos, Dolphins and Bengals in the AFC and a very unlikely contender GB (4-6-1) in the NFC. Stick a fork in the other 12 teams.

-HB