College Football Playoff Scenario

Four of this weekend’s 5 Major Conference Championships will determine which four teams get into the College Playoff.

Alabama is deservedly ranked #1 with a 12-0 record and play Georgia (11-1) in the SEC championship game in Atlanta Saturday at 4pm. Obviously, if the Crimson Tide wins, they retain the #1 seed in the Playoff and will play the #4 seed in the first round. In the opinion of sportsbozos.com, if Georgia (13 point underdogs), loses to Alabama, they should drop out of the playoffs as they will have two losses. If the Bulldogs win, they should move up to be the 2nd seed (as long as Clemson wins) and Alabama should drop to #3.

Clemson (12-0), the #2 ranked team, are 28 point favorites to beat Pitt (7-5) in the ACC Championship game in Charlotte Saturday at 8pm. If they win as expected, and Alabama also wins, then the Tigers should retain the #2 seed. If Georgia beats ‘Bama then Clemson should move to #1.

Notre Dame (12-0) is a lock at #3 unless Clemson and Alabama both lose, if that unlikely situation occurs, then the Fighting Irish would move to the first seed. ND is not playing until the playoffs. If only Clemson loses, then ND could move to #2.

Now it gets a little tricky. Fifth ranked Oklahoma (11-1) plays #14 Texas (9-3) for the Big 12 Championship in Dallas at Noon Saturday. If Oklahoma wins handily and Alabama and Clemson also win, the Sooners should get the #4 seed and play Alabama in the semi-finals while Clemson plays Notre Dame. If #5 Ohio State (11-1) wins against Northwestern (8-4) as 2 TD favorites Saturday night in Indianapolis and Texas beats Oklahoma, then the Buckeyes would be in line for the #4 seed.

UCF is the #8 seed and should have been ranked #7 over Michigan (10-2). Nevertheless, the undefeated (12-0) Knights need to beat Memphis (8-4) as a 3 point favorite at home Saturday to have a chance for the 4^th seed, if and only if, Georgia loses, Oklahoma loses and Ohio State loses.

One wrinkle has it if Ohio State thoroughly dominates Northwestern and Oklahoma barely squeaks by Texas, then the Buckeyes might edge out the Sooners for the 4^th spot. Georgia could remain at #4 even as a two loss team if it loses a nail biter to ‘Bama. Close losses to LSU and ‘Bama might be enough for Georgia to edge out Ohio State, who was trounced by Purdue, or Oklahoma, losers to Texas (who lost to Maryland, Okla. St. and West Va.)

The Pac 12 Championship features 2 three-loss teams so nether Utah nor Washington figure in the equation.

The Bozos predict Alabama to secure the #1 spot with a win over Georgia. Clemson will prevail over Pitt and stay #2. It’s unlikely the Sooners will lose twice to Texas, and we think Ohio State is going to struggle early against NW, thus putting Oklahoma, terrible defense and all, in the playoffs as the 4^th seed. We do not believe that the committee wants to see Alabama vs. Georgia two weeks in a row, so if Georgia either wins or sneaks in with a tough loss, look for Georgia to be the #2 or #3 seed as long as either Oklahoma or Ohio State do not dominate.

Semi-finals

#2 Clemson vs. #3 Notre Dame

#1 Alabama vs. #4 Oklahoma.

Hope this clears some things up!

-HB