Power of the TEASE

The Head Bozo explains his strategy for betting NFL Teasers

The Bozos employ a very special wagering strategy for the NFL games. This strategy, learned over decades of futility provides us with the maximum amount of action using the least amount of funds. We spread out the bets over several teasers encompassing as many games as possible that fit our criteria. This allows us to maximize the limited funds in the Bozo bankroll.

A Teaser is a multiple game wager which allows the bettor to “move” the point spread to the desired line. Straight up bets with a 3, 7 or 10 point spread play directly into the hands of the bookies. With the 10% vig (lose $110 to win $100), a bettor would have to win 53% of the time to barely break even. Even the best NFL handicappers struggle to hit winners 50-55% of the time, regardless of the BS they tell you. 60% is very rare and at that rate, you’re only profiting 16% over time (100 games). This is why the casinos have such lavish lobbies and are willing to comp you to stay in their suite.

The teaser allows the Head Bozo to bet multiple games at once and swing the point spread to his liking, thus increasing the action and not having to wager as much.

Using teasers have been found to work much more often in the following circumstances in ordered preference:
1. Underdogs in home division games
2. Home division games
3. Home underdogs
4. Division underdogs

There are two traditional teasers that we degenerates use. The 3-team, 10-point teaser is the most common. This is called the Sparty Special. This means you can move any side of the game (including the total points-AKA the over/ under) 10 points but you must win all three to collect. The payoff is 5/6 or “laying 6/5” which means you have to wager $120 to win $100. I don’t particularly use this one very often, but it does give you action on 3 games for the price of one. I generally don’t like betting more money ($120) than you get back ($100).

Moving the line- NFL games are decided 15.4 % of the time by exactly 3 points, 8.04% by exactly 7 points. 63% of all games are decided by 10 points or less, 76% by 14 or less.
However the key is selecting the games with the proper lines to tease. An example of some spreads for a 10 point teaser you want to use are the following- IT IS IMPERATIVE TO JUMP OVER AT LEAST TWO OF THE MOST COMMON SPREADS 3, 7 and 10!
6 ½ point favorites- move the line in your favor to +3 ½. More often than not, a favorite of 6 ½ points won’t lose and even if they do, they most likely won’t lose by more than a FG. You are jumping the spread if you win by 3 or even lose by 3.
2 ½ point favorites- move the line to +7 ½. A slight favorite, now getting more than a TD will increase your win odds significantly. You are jumping the lose by 3 and the lose by 7.
4 ½ point underdog- move the line to +14 ½. A team up by two scores or more will usually try to run out the clock, having 14 ½ points will get you a win three quarters of the time. You are jumping the lose by 7, the lose by 10 and the lose by 14.
7 ½ point underdogs- move line to 17 ½-. 85% of all games are decided by 17 points or less.

Personally I like to use 6, 6 ½, and sometimes 7 and 7 ½ point teasers. I depends on the spreads on the games.
A 2-team, 6-point teaser pays the same as the 3-team, 10-point teaser (-$120/+$100) or laying 6/5. Not my favorite.
Now a 3 team 6 point teaser pays 9/5 or +$180. A decent payoff. A 3 teamer with 6 ½ points pays 8/5, also not bad. 7 points will pay 7/5. These are my favorites. Two teamers with 6 and 6 ½ or 10 point 3 team teasers don’t pay enough.

For a 3 teamer, the key is to move the line 6-7 points. The key numbers to jump are the 3 and the 7. You want to jump both of them.
For example Game A: you see a team you like but you have to give a FG. Game B: Another team you like, you have to give 8 ½ points and another Game C: you are getting 1.
Using a 6 ½ point teaser, the first game, Game A, you are now getting 3 ½ (more than a FG) instead of laying 3. (Jumping the push, winning by 3 and losing by 3)
In Game B-you are now laying 2 (less than a FG) instead of over a TD. (Jumping the win by 7 and the win by 3)
In Game C, you now are getting 7 ½ points (more than a TD) instead of less than a FG. (Jumping the lose by 3 and the lose by 7)
This increases your chances of winning each game significantly by “jumping” over two critical common spreads and your win returns 160% of your wager. The best part is that you get three games of action for one bet! You can lose one or all three games against the spread but still win your teaser. POWER OF THE TEASE!

Using teasers in Total points is easy. You want to hit key common “total” numbers as well. You don’t really want to go after totals that are high, say, over 50, because 6-7 points don’t mean as much in a game expected to be high scoring. To take bad weather out of the equation we look at teasing the OVER on games that are played in domes or in warm weather locations. If you feel the need to tease the UNDER, the opposite is true. Tease the UNDER in games played in rain or snowstorms or in very windy and cold stadiums.
The theory is the same- to “jump” over key (common) total numbers. Key common numbers in Totals are 33, 34, 37 (20-17), 43, 44 (24-20 and 27-17), 47, and 48. All very common NFL game point totals that you can use to move the line down lower to increase your chance at hitting an over tease. Bozos rarely bet the under, unless there are circumstances where the line is out of whack.

An example of teasing the totals would be as follows. There are three games, (indoors or in warm weather) that you like the total to go over the number.
You like a game at 43 but damn, you feel that’s too high. Let’s move that to 36 ½ with a 6 ½ teaser, 20-17 (37) shouldn’t be too hard. Sometimes 37 comes in at the half and you can rest easy. POWER OF THE TEASE!
Another game is expected to be high scoring at 50, but that’s too much to worry about. Move that baby to 43 ½ and watch the straight bettors lose when it lands on 48 and you win and they lose. POWER OF THE TEASE!
The third game is at 40, moving this to 33 1/2 increases your chance to hit the over by a large margin. POWER OF THE TEASE!

People will tell you that the Teaser is a sucker bet, and we agree, however that’s if you randomly take teams without considering “jumping” at least two of the important common “land-on” spreads.
In conclusion, if you don’t have a huge bankroll, and you desire more action, less risk, larger payoffs, make sure when you implement the teasers you follow the guidelines described above.

Good Luck- HB