Kentucky Derby –Baffert Trio Leads Derby Charge

Hall of Fame thoroughbred racing trainer Bob Baffert again will have the favorite for this year’s Kentucky Derby. After the scratch of morning line favorite Omaha Beach due to an embedded epiglottis, Baffert’s two year-old champion Game Winner will most likely be the lukewarm favorite (9/2) in the 20 horse field. Dominating the Derby field again, Baffert, who won last year’s Triple Crown with Justify and the 2015 Triple Crown with American Pharoah, also saddles the second and third choices in the Derby, Roadster and Improbable, both expected to go off at around 5-1. The silver-haired trainer is attempting a record 6th win in the Derby. His horses have captured 7 Preakness Stakes, 3 Belmont Stakes and 3 Breeeders Cup Classics.

Handicapping the Derby, with its’ huge field is traditionally challenging, and with no clear cut stand-out colt this season and the expectation of rain and a muddy track, makes this year’s handicapping particularly onerous. The Head Bozo happened to get lucky last year picking the exacta and the triple, however Justify was a clear favorite and would of course be included in all box wagers. Of this year’s bunch, one could make a case for almost every one of them to win.

With 20 horses, it’s not just Improbable to win money on the Kentucky Derby, it’s near Impossible.

So how do you sort them out? How do you manage the amount and type of wagers?

Initially, we need to weed out the entries that we feel have the lowest probability to win the 1 ¼ mile race. This step requires a comparison among all the entries for past results and times, speed ratings, class/ breeding, preferred surface and racing style among other factors. Will the horse like running in the mud if it rains as expected? Is he a mudder, was his mudder a mudder? (Sorry, I had to add the obligatory Abbott and Costello mudder routine).

After excluding the ones with the least perceived chance, then we have to further compare the remaining contenders and then figure out how to use the highest evaluated horses in various dollar amounts in exactas, triples and other exotic wagers to maximize payoffs. We have to cover as many combinations as possible without over-wagering. Expected exotics payoffs will be very high for this race in comparison to most Derbys due to both the absence of an obvious favorite and there being 20 betting interests.

Below are the comments on each horse’s chances and our selections and wagering strategy.

Program Number/ Horse (Trainer/Jockey) Odds

1. War of Will (Mark Casse/Tyler Gaffalione) 20/1
Brutal post position. Unless he bolts to the early lead, whatever speed there is will come reigning down on him and force him into the rail. He’s not likely to gun it early so he’ll be mid-pack hoping for a late run. He’s a cut below most of these and he suffered an injury in his last race. Bozos pass on him.

2. Tax (Danny Gargen/Junior Alvarado) 20/1
$50K claimer was second to a very game Tacitus in the Wood. Tax had a nice workout for this, should like the mud and has shown some talent. We like him to possibly hit the board at 20-1 or better.

3. By My Standards (Calhoun/Gabriel Saez) 20/1
Louisiana Derby winner, like Tax, can close and shouldn’t be too far back. He’s won his last two and has improved as he stretches out in distance. He has worked well over this track and wouldn’t be a complete surprise. At 20-1 he could finish in the money and generate a nice payoff.

4. Gray Magician (Miller/Drayden Van Dyke) 50/1
The Bozos have decided this one doesn’t belong in this company. Nice second in Dubai, but that contest did not rank as one of the more competitive prep races.

5. Improbable (Bob Baffert/Irad Ortiz Jr.) 5/1
This guy just missed vs. Omaha Beach in the Arkansas Derby and was beaten by a neck in the Rebel. He’s a major contender to win and his pedigree suggests he’ll be able to handle a wet surface. He ran well in all 5 of his races and just might be there at the wire. Bozo’s #1 pick!

6. Vekoma (George Weaver/Javier Castellano) 20/1
After a third in the Fountain of Youth, Vekoma came back to score easily in the Blue Grass. He could run just off the speed and finish with a strong kick. At 20-1 he’s a bargain, especially in the slop.

7. Maximum Security (Jason Servis/Luis Saez) 8/1
Speedy, unbeaten colt hasn’t really been tested. He may be the one to catch. Most likely someone will challenge and nail him in the stretch but he could hold on and get some of that purse money.

8. Tacitus (William Mott/Jose Ortiz) 8/1
After Tacitus won the TB Derby he closed well in the Wood in NY to outfinish Tax and Haikal. Bozos are impressed that he can stalk and close. He should benefit from a rainy day if he can stay relatively close to the pace. His pop, Tapit, was a beautiful horse and a productive sire. Another one with decent value who could be wearing the blanket of roses.

9. Plus Que Parfait (Walsh/Ricardo Santana Jr.) 30/1
The winner of the Dubai prep, like Gray Magician we are disregarding that race due to the lack of credible competition. His last two races in the US were sub-par. Moins que Parfait.

10. Cutting Humor (Pletcher/ Mike Smith) 30/1
Longshot won the G3 Sunland Derby and can close but we have to draw the line somewhere. Hoping he’s a tier below these at the end of the day.
Smith, who lost the mount on Omaha Beach was named Friday to replace Corey Lanerie.

11. Scratched- Haikal (Kiaran McLaughlin/ Maragh) 30/1
Scratched Friday due to a hoof injury.

12. Scratched-Omaha Beach (Mandella/M. Smith)
What a shame, trainer Mandella was looking for his first Kentucky Derby and jock Mike Smith had a choice between Roadster and this guy and took Omaha Beach. Smith jumps on #10 Cutting Humor instead.

13. Code of Honor (McGaughey/Velasquez) 15/1
Shug has a fighting chance here with the FOY winner. He’s inconsistent and a closer, and as with Haikal, he’ll have too many horses to pass to get up in time.

14. Win Win Win (Trombetta/Pimentel) 15/1
This guy was on the fast track before fading in his last two tries. He’s another closer and probably won’t be a factor here.

15. Master Fencer (Tsunoda/Julien Leparoux) 50/1
Japanese invader has made a very long trip with slim hopes of getting a payoff. I doubt we’ll be seeing his characters flashing.

16. Game Winner (Bob Baffert/Joel Rosario) 9/2
Last year’s champ and probable Derby favorite was edged out by his stablemate Roadster in the SA Derby last out. Prior to that, he was beaten a nose by the scratched Omaha Beach. BC Juvenile winner always give a game effort. Dad was Candy Ride which suggests that he’ll love the off-going. Bozos will have him on all tickets. We like him for first or second.

17. Roadster (Bob Baffert/Florent Geroux) 5/1
Baffert’s third colt in here beat Game Winner last out in Santa Anita but that was his only 2019 stakes attempt. Losing regular rider Smith is a negative, as is this post. Wet track may be an issue but we still like him in the top three. Derby crowd could bet him down to favorite status. Eddie O’s pick!

18. Long Range Toddy (Asmussen/Jon Court) 30/1
His last race was a clunker after besting Improbable in the Rebel. Bad luck getting this post if he gets hung out wide on the first turn. He could get a piece of this with a late run but we, again, have to choose someone more likely.

19. Spinoff (Todd Pletcher/Manny Franco) 30/1
He faded in the stretch in the Louisiana Derby, losing to the #3 horse here. Jockey Velasquez decided to ride Code of Honor instead. He has some speed, but from post #18 this would be asking a lot.

20. Country House (William Mott/Prat) 30/1
He hasn’t won since breaking his maiden. A closer might have too much to do late with a lot of mud in his face. A notch below the best in here.

21. Bodexpress (Delgado/Chris Landeros) 30/1
He’s only in here because of the scratch of the favorite. He ran a nice second in the Florida Derby but he’s still a maiden. His first win, a Derby victory? I don’t think so!

The Wager

The Head Bozo’s Derby Pick is #5 Improbable. He is the overlooked Baffert colt among the three. He has a great post position, #5 and has breeding to suggest success running on the expected sloppy track. He was 3-3 in 2018 and had two close seconds this year. In his last race, the Arkansas Derby, he had difficulty loading into the gate, ran very wide and lost by only a length to the best 3 year-old in training, Omaha Beach, on a muddy track. Irad Ortiz is one of the top jockeys in the country. At odds of 5-1 or 6-1 he offers excellent value in potential exacta and triple payoffs.

HB’s second choice is another Baffert trained horse, #16 Game Winner. Two year-old and BC Juvenile Champ, Game Winner is as reliable as they come. Four wins in four tries in 2018 with two seconds this year. His second in the Rebel came by a nose in a hard fought stretch run against Omaha Beach.

We’re going to box Improbable and Game Winner with our next two choices, #8 Tacitus and #6 Vekoma. This will provide great value as both these colts will be at least 8-1, with Vekoma maybe 20-1.

Tacitus has won three in a row including the Wood Memorial and the Tampa Bay Derby. He’s a son of a mudder, Tapit, a formidable sire, and will provide excellent value.

Vekoma, (3-4 lifetime) is in here because he also loves the slop, he owns the highest wet track rating in the field and he is the winner of the Blue Grass Stakes.

These four will be in our Exacta and Triple box.

$2 Exacta Box (5-16-8-6)
$1 Triple Box (5-16-8-6)

We’ll also play a triple part wheel and to round out the third slot we will use #2 Tax, #3 By My Standards, #7 Maximum Security and Baffert’s third entry, #17 Roadster for third.

$1 Triple 5-16/ 5-16-8-6/ 5-16-8-6-2-3-7-17.

If we get lucky and hit one of these combinations, it’ll be a nice payday.

Saturday May 4th, NBC 6:40 pm

May the horse be with you!

-HB