NFL Playoff- Wild Card Round- Bozos Make the Case

This Saturday and Sunday, on the first weekend in 2020, we welcome the NFL playoff Wild Card Round.

Saturday 4:35 pm (10-6) Buffalo Bills (+2 ½) at (10-6) Houston Texans O/U 44

Saturday 8:15pm (9-7) Tennessee Titans (+5) at (12-4) New England Patriots O/U 44 1/2

Sunday 1:05pm (10-6) Minnesota Vikings (+7 ½) at (13-3) New Orleans Saints O/U 50

Sunday 4:40pm (11-5) Seattle Seahawks (-2) at (9-7) Philadelphia Eagles O/U 45 1/2

Bills at Texans: Bills have a really tough defense and they struggle to score points on offense. They don’t allow many big plays (only 26 over 30 yards all year) and have held 15 of the 16 teams they played to 24 points or less. That makes them a live upset pick and makes the under worth looking at. On offense, Josh Allen struggles against good teams. He can make the big play and is a tough SOB to bring down when he runs but he is inconsistent and struggles in the Red Zone.

Houston also is up and down, beating the Chiefs and Patriots while losing to the Broncos and Panthers. Deshaun Watson is an explosive playmaker and needs receivers DeAndre Hopkins and Kenny Stills to step up. If Will Fuller can suit up, the Texans have a considerably better chance to win. Houston’s defense has been near the bottom of the league but if JJ Watt is playing, the odds favor the Texans.

Surprisingly, the line is only 2 ½, usually a home team will get more respect at the betting windows than this. Money is coming in on the Bills. Also surprisingly, that the over/ under is 44, which is high for a Buffalo game.

The Bozos like the Home team giving less than a FG and the under 44.

We think the teams will play conservatively and settle for FGs. Most likely this is a one score game.

If you like teasers and we do, the play for the first game is to tease the Texans six points, grab Houston +3 ½ at home with the under of 50. Even if the home team loses a close one by a FG, it’s still a win.

If you really like the Bills, teasing Buffalo up six points to +8 ½ gives you some room even if they lose in a one score game. Buffalo averages less than 20 points per game and allows 16. Houston averages less than 24 points per game and gives up the same. Odds are this game doesn’t go over 50 points.

Titans at Patriots: The sixth seeded Titans finished the season with a playoff clinching win over Houston, but Houston didn’t play Watson as they had already clinched the #4 seed. Their only big win came over the Chiefs. Tennessee finished up (7-3) under Tannnehill, who is starting his first playoff game after residing in Mediocre Village, Miami the first seven years of his career.

The Patriots struggled offensively all year and after starting (8-0) playing a cake schedule, they finished (4-$) with a loss to the Dolphins at home, needing the win t secure a Bye. New England’s Super Bowl wins have all come when they had a bye week. Having to play this week and unable to rest an injured Julian Edelman, last year’s Super Bowl MVP, is a distinct disadvantage for the Pats.

That being said, New England still finished with the top ranked defense allowing only 14 points per game and is playing at home, where they haven’t lost consecutive games since last century. This battle will be won in the trenches as the human sledgehammer and league leading rusher, Derrick Henry, will try to pound down the D-Line of NE.

Brady is still Brady and the best QB in NFL history still finds a way to win. Probably with lots of checkdowns as his weaponry of yore is limited lately.

At 5 points, this is not really a teaser game unless you want to root for a one-score game and push the Titans line up to 11. This could be a FG game, and we think the Pats will prevail at home (Brady vs. Tannehill, really?) so a Pats money line bet is safe at (-230) when used in parlays. We think the Pats will cover the five as the Belichick/ TB-12 combo will find a way to move to the divisional round. The under seems like a good play, maybe tease it up to 49 ½.

Vikings at Saints: Let’s start with the fact that Minnesota didn’t beat anyone in 2019 with a winning record and they were crushed by GB week 16 in a crucial divisional game. Kirk Cousins improved this year but the Vikings don’t have the overall consistency need to steal one against Drew Brees and Michael Thomas in the Superdome. The Saints have won six of seven, losing only by two points to SF and are an offensive juggernaut scoring over 28 points per game. Add in the revenge factor from the Minneapolis Miracle two years ago and this one should be all Saints all day. Cousins will have his hands full and they will try to pound Dalvin Cook in to the Saints line but it won’t be enough. For teasers, you could move the line to NO -1 ½ and take the over 44. We just like the Saints straight up with the over. We might buy a point and lay 6 ½ to be safe but this game should be a breeze for Brees.

Seahawks at Eagles: Philly is the most vulnerable home team in the Wild Card round. Barely squeaking into the tournament with a week 16 win over the troubled Cowboys and wins over the lame Redskins and Giants (twice) to finish (9-7) from (5-7). The Eagles, severely depleted by injuries all year suffered losses to the Falcons, Lions and Dolphins, as well as Seattle. Only the magical will-to-win of Carson Wentz and dice-roller Doug Pedersen have presented Philly with a chance. The Eagles have run the table as dogs in 2017 and are the team to fear if they have a final drive to win the game.

Russell Wilson, however, has had a remarkable season, throwing for 4000 yards, 31 TDs vs. only 5 interceptions. The Hawks are in the top three of the NFC contenders. It’s an NFL tragedy that an (11-5) team has to play on the road against a (9-7) team. Beast Mode Marshawn Lynch is back for inspiration and the Bozos love the live road team to end The Philadelphia Story. A teaser moving Seattle to +4 is pretty, pretty safe. With the Eagles offensive struggles, this should be relatively low scoring. Seattle beat Philly 17-9 earlier in the season.

The Plays:
Four team Parlay (pays 7-1)
Texans – 2 1/2 Bills
Patriots – 2 ½ Titans
Saints – 6 ½ Vikings
Seahawks -1 1/2 Eagles

Four team 6 point Teaser pays (3-1)
Texans +3 ½ Bills under 49 1/2
Saints -1 1/2 Vikings over 44

Enjoy!

-HB