Tiz the Law Heavy Favorite in Rescheduled Kentucky Derby

Four months after originally slated and without spectators due to the Pandemic, the 146th Kentucky Derby will finally proceed at Churchill Downs in Louisville this Saturday. The first Saturday in September sounds about right for this wacky 2020. With Post time about 7 pm., NBC will have coverage of the 14 race card starting at 2:30 pm. Frankly I’m going to welcome the focus being on the race and the horses and not the fruity hats, Mint Juleps and the goofy dressed up celebrities. I am sure they will Zoom in some of these Tik-tokkers for their reasons why they like King Guillermo or Winning Impression.

Odds-on favorite Tiz the Law will break from post 17 in the 18-horse field. Manny Franco will guide the Barclay Tagg trained colt for the mile and a quarter in what looks like a fast track. The group known as Sackatoga Stable from upstate New York owns Tiz the Law. You may remember when the Sackatoga school bus and Tagg teamed up to win the Derby back in 2003 with longshot Funny Cide.

Tiz the Law (Morning Line odds 3-5) has dominated the 3-year-old division with recent wins in the Travers and the Belmont Stakes. In an unusual season, the stakes races traditionally used to prepare for the Derby have been reshuffled. The 3rd leg of the Triple Crown, the Belmont, took place four weeks ago and the Preakness will be run the first week of October. However, Tiz the Law has successfully met the challenge head on in each race since his victory in the Bozo attended Holy Bull in February at Gulfstream. He has lost only once in eight tries, is 4-4 in 2020 and a much deserving heavy favorite. He will attempt to be the first horse to win the Derby from post 17.

The main challengers to Tiz the Law, Authentic (8-1) trained by Bob Baffert and Honor A.P. (5-1) trained by John Shirreffs will leave the gate from either side of the favorite, with #18 Authentic outside of Tiz the Law and #16 Honor A.P. just inside. Both should be close to or even set the pace with Tiz the Law stalking just outside.

In the past month, Authentic nosed out the grey Ny Traffic to win the prestigious Haskell and Honor A.P. was upset by Thousand Words by ¾ length in the Shared Belief. Authentic, with the far outside post has won four of five races, with his only loss, a second to Honor A.P. in the Santa Anita Derby.

Here’s the field for the 146th Kentucky Derby:

1. Finnick the Fierce, Martin Garcia, 50-1
2. Max Player, Ricardo Santana Jr., 30-1
3. Enforceable, Adam Beschizza, 30-1
4. Storm the Court, Julien Leparoux, 50-1
5. Major Fed, James Graham, 50-1
6. King Guillermo, Samy Camacho, 20-1
7. Money Moves, Javier Castellano, 30-1
8. South Bend, Tyler Gaffalione, 50-1
9. Mr. Big News, Gabriel Saez, 50-1
10. Thousand Words, Florent Geroux, 15-1
11. Necker Island, Miguel Mena, 50-1
12. Sole Volante, Luca Panici, 30-1
13. Attachment Rate, Joe Talamo, 50-1
14. Winning Impression, Joe Rocco Jr., 50-1
15. Ny Traffic, Paco Lopez, 20-1
16. Honor A. P., Mike Smith, 5-1
17. Tiz the Law, Manny Franco, 3-5
18. Authentic, John Velazquez, 8-1

Handicapping any race where there is a heavy favorite always presents a challenge. When there are 18 participants and most of them have not raced this far makes it even tougher. Tiz the Law is the most likely winner but since favorites win only about 1/3 of the time, betting $100 to win on Tiz the Law to win $60 does not seem very attractive. Playing an exacta with Tiz the Law on top of a couple of potential challengers produces a better payoff, so in doing that, you need to find value for a horse that you think can come in second. Exactas with Tiz the Law on top of the 2nd and 3rd choices, Honor A.P. and Authentic, may not pay that much but these are the most likely scenarios. Besides those two, which I’ll box with the favorite, I’ll look at two more horses for even bigger payoffs.

One contender I feel will provide value in an exacta payoff is Bob Baffert’s #10 Thousand Words (15-1) who beat Honor A.P. in his last race. Baffert has captured this race five times and this California shipper purchased for $1 million is in prime form. Thousand Words owns the 2nd highest speed figure in the race at 104, only behind the 109 Tiz the Law carded in the Travers.

The other horse I feel who can challenge Tiz the Law is #15 Ny Traffic (20-1). Including that closing second to Authentic, Ny Traffic has finished in the money all five times this season. He runs close to the pace and his recent races and workouts suggest he will like the added distance.

For a crazy longshot closer, take a look at Todd Pletcher’s #7 Money Moves. You might get 100-1 on this guy who is improving after only three starts.

The Wagers:

Exacta Box: Tiz the Law with Thousand Words
Exacta Box: Tiz the Law with Ny Traffic
Exacta Box: Tiz the Law, Authentic and Honor A.P.
Money Moves across the board for the fun of it!

Enjoy!- HB