The Bozos weigh in on the 2020 Breeders’ Cup Classic

Ten contenders face off in the 2020 version of the $6 Million Breeders’ Cup Classic on Saturday, Nov. 7th from Keeneland. The battle for Horse Racing supremacy is taking place at its’ normal time in an abnormal year and it features the two best 3 year olds in training against the top older horses in the handicap division.

As for the 3 year olds, Belmont and Travers winner Tiz the Law leads this group with 6 wins in 8 starts, crushing his competition all year before running into the speedster Authentic, who wore him down in the stretch to win the Kentucky Derby. Authentic (5 wins in 7 tries) disappointed in the Preakness after his stellar Derby performance to finish second to the dominant filly Swiss Skydiver. Both Tiz the Law and Authentic will be facing their toughest rivals by far while challenging older horses for the first time.

Bob Baffert has three contenders in this race. Besides Authentic, he will run his best 4 year olds, Improbable and $12 million earner Maximum Security. Improbable, the deserving favorite has really turned it on lately, winning three Grade 1 stakes in a row since June, while beating several of the horses in this race in the process. Maximum Security, transferred to Bob’s stable in July had won five in a row before Improbable stifled him by 4 ½ lengths in their last race in September.

Tom’s d’Etat is a consistent 7 year old that had won four straight before losing as the favorite in his last race to both Improbable and By My Standards. Because of that race, Tom’s d’Etat will be sent off at higher odds, maybe 6-1 or better. However, his poor showing in that race can certainly be forgiven after getting left at the starting gate, giving him virtually no chance to catch up in time.

By My Standards, like Tom’s d’Etat will provide excellent value at possibly 10-1 or more. He has 4 firsts and 2 seconds this year and is in the same class as the toughest horses in this race.

The unpredictable Tacitus, the steady Higher Power, the speedy Global Campaign and the closer Title Ready all could present a challenge at some point in the race as this field is as good as it gets.

The 1 ¼ mile race should start off with a moderate speed duel between #9 Authentic and #10 Maximum Security with the #7 Global Campaign , #2 Tiz the Law and #8 Improbable in the next tier sitting just off the expected pace setters.

My feeling is that as these horses enter the top of the stretch, Tiz the Law and Improbable challenge the lead from Maximum Security and Authentic with #4 Tom’s d’Etat and #3 By My Standards looming large.

Coming down the stretch, expect to see Tiz the Law, Improbable and Tom’s d’Etat fight it out with longshots By My Standards and Higher Power making themselves known. Either one or both Authentic or Maximum Security could hang on for a piece of the action but ultimately we like Tom’s d’Etat to hit the wire ahead of Tiz the Law and Improbable.

The Field
1. Tacitus (20-1)
Trainer: Bill Mott
Jockey: Jose Ortiz
2. Tiz the Law (3-1)
Trainer: Barclay Tagg
Jockey: Manny Franco
3. By My Standards (10-1)
Trainer: Bret Calhoun
Jockey: Gabriel Saez
4. Tom’s d’Etat (6-1)
Trainer: Albert Stall Jr.
Jockey: Joel Rosario
5. Title Ready (30-1)
Trainer: Dallas Stewart
Jockey: Corey Lanerie
6. Higher Power (20-1)
Trainer: John Sadler
Jockey: Flavien Prat
7. Global Campaign (20-1)
Trainer: Stanley Hough
Jockey: Javier Castellano
8. Improbable (5-2)
Trainer: Bob Baffert
Jockey: Irad Ortiz Jr.
9. Authentic (9-5)
Trainer: Bob Baffert
Jockey: John Velazquez
10. Maximum Security (7-2)
Trainer: Bob Baffert
Jockey: Luis Saez

The Wagers:

#4 Tom’s d’Etat to WIN
Exacta Box our top 3 challengers: (2-4-8)
Triples with our top 3 (2-4-8) in first and second with (10-3-9-6) in the second and third spots.
May the Horse be with you!
-HB