The 2021 Preakness

This year’s Preakness is about forgiveness.

As we know, Bob Baffert, the winning trainer for the Kentucky Derby winner Medina Spirit has been accused of cheating as a trace amount of the banned substance betamethasone was found in a sample of the winner’s blood. More testing is taking place and the horse will be allowed to run in the Preakness. The horse had a rash and was treated with an ointment that the trainer did not know contained the substance. The small amount of betamethasone would not have had any effect on the performance of the horse. Trust Dr. Bozo on this. The theory that Russian cyberhackers are sabotaging Big Bad Bob has not been confirmed yet.

There are lots of questions to ponder as we prepare to handicap this race.

Do we “forgive” Baffert and Medina Spirit and bet them in the Preakness or do we say that we can’t bet on a cheater? Do we ignore a wire-to-wire victory in the Derby and not bet on the fastest horse in the field?

What about Baffert’s other horse, Concert Tour? Do we take a stand against him as well because we don’t want to back the cheating trainer? Concert Tour looked great winning shorter races this spring until he tired as the favorite in the Arkansas Derby at a distance shorter than the Preakness. I think the distance may be an issue for him.
Because the public seems to be taking a stand against Medina Spring, the race favorite will probably be the ‘Wise guy” horse Midnight Bourbon, one of two other Preakness entries that ran two weeks ago in the Derby.

Do we forgive the 6th place finish of Midnight Bourbon in the Kentucky Derby because he was bumped at the start in a 19-horse field? Did he rally to close or did he just pass fading horses who had given up or were too tired?

Is longshot Keepmeinmind, the other Derby horse who is returning, who also closed well passing horses after being last early, a contender or are his three out of the money finishes in 2021 too much to overlook?

Are the newcomers, Ram, Rombauer and France Go de Ina simply in over their heads after not qualifying for the Derby?

Before I get to the half of the horses I give a chance to in the 10-horse field, I have a question as to why the 2nd place finisher in the Derby, Mandaloun, is not in Baltimore today. If by chance, Baffert’s Derby winner were ultimately disqualified in the Derby, Mandaloun would be pronounced the winner. If he then won the Preakness and the Belmont, he would be a rare Triple Crown winner. It appears Mandaloun came out of the Derby uninjured so where is he? Is it too taxing to compete in the Preakness with only two weeks rest? Is there not enough money to lure his owner to the Pimlico starting gate? Racing needs to take a look at these issues especially the former.

The Bozos have decided to not punish the “fastest” horse in the race by all accounts, Medina Spring. We are including him in our boxes because as second or third choice, he will provide clear value at 3-1 or more.

Midnight Bourbon, even though he is the Wise guy horse and will be bet down, is being forgiven for his poor Derby and is being given another chance by the Bozo Board of Directors. It is likely he will finish in the top three out of these ten, so he too will be included in the Bozo Boxes.

So if we have two of the three favorites (the other being Concert Tour) in our box so far, we have to look for some horses with higher odds to complete our trifecta and exacta wagers.

From post-position order, we have decided to forego the #1 Ram and #2 Keepmeinmind as they don’t appear fast enough.

#4 Crowded Trade will offer good value as we are going to forgive the Wood Memorial third place result. Chad Brown is a Hall of Fame trainer and should have his colt ready for this challenge after sitting out the Derby. We think he can close for a price, maybe 8-1 or so.

#6 Rombauer and #7 France Go de Ina seem to be a cut below this group and will not be wagered upon, even with the recent Bozo Dogecoin fortune.

I just love the breeding and upside potential on #8 Unbridled Honor. His grandsire A. P. Indy was very kind to the Head Bozo back in the early 90’s. Unbridled Honor also skipped the Derby after a nice rally at 20-1 to close for second in the Lexington. He will be far back early and if the pace is hot we’ll root for this longshot trained by new Hall of Fame member Todd Pletcher to finish in the money, maybe at 20-1 again.

#9 Risk Taking is another Chad Brown trained colt who skipped the Derby. Again, as with Crowded Trade, one would have to assume Chad has these horses primed for this, especially Risk Taking who scratched out of last week’s favoritism in the Peter Pan at Belmont to race here.

Risk Taking had a rough start at the start of the Wood and we will forgive his performance there and look back at his two sharp wins over the winter at Aqueduct as an indication of a potential contender here at fair odds of around 10-1.

Distance and low odds/ value for #10 Concert Tour has turned me away from this former Derby darling.
Leaving him out of the boxes was the hardest decision I had to make standing in the maskless line at the window.

The Donations/ Wagers

Exacta and Trifecta Boxes

3-4-5-9
3-5-8-9

Exacta Box 3-5

Enjoy!- HB