Third Time’s The Charm- Bozos take another crack at the Triple Crown

The Bozos are back for the 3rd leg of the Triple Crown after some disappointing handicapping results in the Kentucky Derby and The Preakness. Time to make amends as the fans are frustrated and have resorted to drawing a bright red line through the Head Bozos selections!

After a 19-horse field in Kentucky and a 10-horse field in Baltimore, the Belmont will only send out eight starters featuring impressive Preakness winner Rombauer and Derby favorite Essential Quality. That should narrow it down a little.

A non-factor in the Preakness (7th), the Japanese shipper France Go de Ina will take another shot at the big bonus in the Belmont.
Besides Essential Quality who finished 4th in the Derby, losing by a single length, returning to the races after their defeats in Louisville, are 13th place Derby finisher Bourbonic, Hot Rod Charlie (3rd in the Derby), Known Agenda (9th) and Rock Your World (17th).

Rounding out the field from the outside post will be Triple Crown newcomer and the 3rd of Todd Pletcher’s starters is Overtook. Overtook prepped for this race with a third place finish in the Peter Pan on this track four weeks ago. Overtook is the only colt in the race to have raced twice over the long trying Belmont oval.

The Belmont Stakes, known as the “Test of the Champion,” is the oldest of the three American classic races, and is traditionally the last and longest leg of the Triple Crown. Its place as the final leg of the Triple Crown has produced indelible memories, such as Secretariat’s virtuoso performance in 1973 to become the first horse to sweep the series in a quarter-century. His 31-length victory, widely considered the greatest single performance in the history of the sport, was completed in a record 2:24 for the 1 1/2 miles.

In 2015, American Pharoah again rocked the stands at Belmont Park when he ended an even longer Triple Crown drought, becoming the first winner of the series in 37 years.
The Belmont has generally been run at 1 1/2 miles, one full lap of the massive oval known as “Big Sandy,” since 1926. In 2020, as a result of the race being held as the first leg of the Triple Crown due to the COVID-19 pandemic, it was shortened to 1 1/8 miles.

Post time: 6:49 p.m. Saturday at Belmont Park run at 1 ½ miles.

1. Bourbonic, Todd Pletcher, Kendrick Carmouche, 15-1
Late running closer had a rough trip from the far outside post in the Derby and came up 16 lengths short. Todd is giving him another chance as he did win the Wood and is based in New York. My feeling is that he’ll be too far back before launching his late run and will fall short in the stretch.

2. Essential Quality, Brad Cox, Luis Saez, 2-1
Head Bozos Top Pick! We will excuse the Derby loss and back him to show his class and win this. He deserves favoritism and some respect here as he won his first five races before getting bothered at the start and then hung out wide in the Derby, again, only to lose by a length. This grey colt has possibly the best breeding to handle the 1 ½ mile distance. His racing style appears suited to run down the early speed of California invaders Hot Rod Charlie and Rock Your World. With less potential traffic problems, he should get a clean trip and win the third leg of the Triple Crown.

3. Rombauer, Michael McCarthy, John Velazquez, 3-1
Also a colt who will benefit from a speed duel up front, Rombauer won the Preakness easily. Inheriting Johnny V. makes him a solid contender. Unfortunately, the Derby horses he faces here are a lot tougher than the ones he faced in Baltimore. His Preakness effort might have taken some of the life out of him and “bounce” as they say in the parlance of the track. At low odds, I’ll lean elsewhere for value.

4. Hot Rod Charlie, Doug O’Neill, Flavien Prat, 7-2
A consistent colt with tactical speed should vie for the lead from the start and could easily hold on for a piece of the action. In a traffic filled Derby he finished evenly for third by a length. He lost to top pick Essential Quality in last years Breeders Cup Juvenile by less than a length. I’ll be using him in my boxes figuring he’ll fight to finish in the money at around 5-1.

5. France Go de Ina, Hideyuki Mori, Ricardo Santana Jr., 30-1
After finishing well up the track in his last two attempts, he appears overmatched here. I don’t like him at all. Owners are trying to collect a $1 Million bonus for any Japanese horse who wins a Triple Crown race.

6. Known Agenda, Todd Pletcher, Jockey TBD, 6-1
Pletcher’s best chance in this race, the talented Florida Derby winner also has the genes to go the distance as sire Curlin lost the 2007 Belmont to the filly Rags to Riches by a head. His racing style to rate off the early speed and make a closing run on the leaders make him a logical choice. He appears to be worth the risk at a good price, maybe 7-1. I’ll include him in my wagers as he is the second choice. Thursday his jockey Irad Ortiz was injured in a spill and will miss the race. As of this writing, a replacement has not been named.

7. Rock Your World, John Sadler, Joel Rosario, 9-2
Like Hot Rod Charlie, Rock Your World has the speed to lead the field for the first mile as he did dominating the Santa Anta Derby. He was badly bumped in Kentucky and lost all chance there. As he has only raced twice on dirt, I am going to bet on other horses with more dirt experience.

8. Overtook, Todd Pletcher, Manny Franco, 20-1
Overtook is my wild card choice. I have always loved the angle of playing the horses that skipped the Derby and the Preakness and competed in the Peter Pan at 1 1/8 miles over the Belmont track (see Colonial Affair and Tonalist). He has a ton of improving to do to figure in this race but he is a son of Curlin who should have no issue getting the distance. Curlin’s foals have won three Belmont Stakes. High expectations exist as his owners paid $1,000,000 for him. Like Essential Quality and Known Agenda, Overtook could sit off the pace and make a run down the stretch and if he lands in the money, the exacta and trifecta payoffs explode. I do have to make up for the earlier two debacles.

The Wagers

#2 Essential Quality to Win

I’m going to play Exactas and Trifectas with my top 4 selections- Essential Quality, Known Agenda, Hot Rod Charlie and Overtook.

And #8 Overtook across the board, who knows?!!!

Enjoy- HB