The Bozos Handicap The 149th Kentucky Derby

Handicapping the now 18 horse Kentucky Derby is no small feat, obviously due to the number of horses and individual racing interests, but also due to the regional and global competition that is involved leading up to the race. First, we are going to breakdown each colt, then we will assess the chances of the most probable contenders. Finally based on the expected odds, we will select our final selections based on value and likelihood of winning and finishing in the money.

Watch the 149th running of the $3,000,000 Kentucky Derby on Saturday, May 6 at 6:57 p.m. ET on NBC.

2023 Kentucky Derby Post Positions, Odds

1. Hit Show (30-1)
Trainer: Brad Cox
Jockey: Manny Franco
Probably third best of Brad Cox’s four Derby entries, Hit Show has been disadvantaged with the rail post. As the favorite in the Wood, he was nipped by a nose by 59-1 shot Lord Miles. Another strong rally like the G3 Withers could put him in the picture at a good price. He ran poorly in his only start at CD. Not the worst longshot with solid Jockey Manny Franco and Trainer Cox. The Wood used to be a viable prep race for the Derby but not since Funny Cide in 2003 has the Wood winner prevailed in the Derby.

2. Verifying (15-1)
Trainer: Brad Cox
Jockey: Tyler Gaffalione
Cox’s fastest entry lost the prestigious Blue Grass by a nose to Tapit Trice and should be up close early in the Derby. Derby winners traditionally need to be relatively close to the lead in such a large field and Verifying fits the profile at a fair price as his speed figures are competitive among this bunch. The pick.

3. Two Phil’s (12-1)
Trainer: Larry Rivelli
Jockey: Jareth Loveberry
Five length winner of the outlier prep race, the G3 Jeff Ruby, Two Phil’s not only has run the fastest last race speed figure, albeit on synthetic dirt, but also has a G3 win over this track last October. It would be a surprise if first-time Jockey-Trainer combo could pull this off but a finish in the money is certainly not out of the question.

4. Confidence Game (20-1)
Trainer: Keith Desormeaux
Jockey: James Graham
18-1 winner in the muddy Rebel has been idle since Feb. and that is not the preferred route to the Derby. He would improve if the track is wet but otherwise he looks like he is deserving of his predicted odds.

5. Tapit Trice (5-1)
Trainer: Todd Pletcher
Jockey: Luis Saez
Purchased for $1.3M, this expensive Tapit colt has high expectations as the second rated of Pletcher’s four horses and the ML second choice in the race. Nipped Verifying in the important prep G1 Blue Grass. If he has trouble settling in relatively close to the lead, this closer could run out of time to pass horses in the stretch. Quality Jockey Luis Saez has been aboard for the last three consecutive wins. Tapit Trice is a serious contender in the Run for the Roses.

6. Kingsbarns (12-1)
Trainer: Todd Pletcher
Jockey: Jose Ortiz
The only undefeated colt in the race, 3 for 3 lightly raced Kingsbarns is another Pletcher charge in here. He won on the lead in his last race, the G2 Louisiana Derby. The speed of his races suggest he might be a little slower than his counterparts here.

7. Reincarnate (50-1)
Trainer: Tim Yakteen
Jockey: John Velazquez
Reincarnate’s performances have regressed since winning the G3 Sham in January with losses in both the Arkansas Derby and Rebel Stakes at Oaklawn Park. Although never worse than third, even HOF Jockey Johnny V. is seriously up against it here.

8. Mage (15-1)
Trainer: Gustavo Delgado
Jockey: Javier CastellanoIn the quality Prep, the G1 Florida Derby, Mage was only beaten one length by Derby favorite Forte after a very slow start. In this, his fourth start, a good performance would not be surprising but a victory certainly would. Another colt who better not get too far back early.

9. Skinner (20-1) was SCRATCHED Friday with a fever.

10. Practical Move was SCRATCHED Thursday with a fever.

11. Disarm (30-1)
Trainer: Steve Asmussen
Jockey: Joel Rosario
Maiden winner has top jock Rosario on board but that won’t be enough as slow finishes in his last two races would suggest he will finish in the back half of this group. However never sell-short these connections.

12. Jace’s Road (15-1)
Trainer: Brad Cox
Jockey: Florent Geroux
Slow finisher should fade after challenging for the lead. It is a reach to suggest a reversal of form great enough to steal the Derby.

13. Sun Thunder (30-1)
Trainer: Ken McPeek
Jockey: Brian Hernandez
Another maiden winner with poor Derby prep results and slow times should finish in the rear. He’ll have the best view of the other 19 horses’ tails.

14. Angel of Empire (8-1)
Trainer: Brad Cox
Jockey: Flavien Prat
The formidable winner of the Arkansas Derby will be flying down the stretch. He has smoked a few of these already this year. Million-dollar winner has the gravitas to compete here against the class of the division.

15. Forte SCRATCHED Saturday morning with a bruised right front foot.

16. Raise Cain (15-1)
Trainer: Ben Colebrook
Jockey: Gerardo Corrales
The big winner in the G2 Gotham ran a poor Blue Grass getting left at the gate does not look competitive.

17. Derma Sotogake (10-1)
Trainer: Hidetaka Otonashi
Jockey: Christopher Lemaire
Name translates to Sumo Takedown. The Wild Card. Every Derby seems to have one. It is difficult to extrapolate speed figures for a (Japanese) horse who has prepped for this in Saudi Arabia and Dubai. He romped in the $1M G2 UAE Derby with a high Timeform rating. Colts trained in Japan historically have not performed very well in Kentucky in May however in the last couple of seasons they have improved and been competitive globally. He deserves to be considered as a threat to win and the feedbox noise suggests he’ll be the ‘wise guy” horse.

18. Rocket Can (15-1)
Trainer: Bill Mott
Jockey: Junior Alvarado
All downhill after taking the Holy Bull in February, Rocket Can folded in both of his subsequent preps. Those results indicate he will have difficulty being competitive on Saturday.

19. Lord Miles was SCRATCHED Thursday by trainer Saffie Joseph Jr. at the request of the Kentucky Horse Racing Commission.

20. Continuar was SCRATCHED Thursday due to a percieved lack of fitness by the Trainer.

21. Cyclone Mischief (30-1)
Trainer: Dale Ronmans
Jockey: TBD
Probably not good enough. Solidly beaten in all three Florida preps, hasn’t shown anything yet that would make him a challenger. Remember Rich Strike scratched in last year as #21 and stole the race.

22. Mandarin Hero (20-1)
Trainer: T. Fujita
Jockey: K. Kimura
Colt has won 4 of 6, and finished second in his last race, the G1 SA Derby by a nose. That performance, in the best Derby prep earns him a ton of respect in this race.

23. King Russell (50-1)
Trainer: R. Moquette
Jockey: R. Bejerano
The King has only won a maiden race but was second to Angel of Empire in the Arkansas Derby at 60-1. He rallies late and might surprise.

We have evaluated the most probable contenders in the following areas:
Strongest/ fastest Prep Race, Average Race Rating, Average Class of Last Races, Pace, Jockey and Trainer and the same horses emerge as strong contenders:

2. Verifying (Blue Grass runner-up)
5. Tapit Trice (Blue Grass winner)
17. Derma Sotogake (UAE Derby winner)
3. Two Phil’s (Jack Ruby winner)
14. Angel of Empire (Arkansas Derby winner)
22. Mandarin Hero (SA Derby runner-up)

With the scratch of Forte, Pletcher’s “other” horse Tapit Trice is the most likely winner likely around 7/2.

Updated odds Friday Noon: Verifying at 22-1 and Mandarin Hero at 29-1 or better will present super high Exacta and Trifecta payoffs.
So, the BOZO wager is to play the two Exacta Boxes below:

Box #1
2. Verifying- updated odds (17-1)
5. Tapit Trice updated odds (3-1)
17. Derma Sotogake- updated odds (7-1)

Box #2
2. Verifying- updated odds (17-1)
3. Two Phil’s- updated odds (7-1)
14. Angel of Empire- updated odds (5-1)
22. Mandarin Hero- updated odds (25-1)

*Our Trifectas will include crazy combinations of these seven horses.*

Our pick to WIN is Verifying.

Other longshots offering great value are #1 Hit Show (34-1), #8 Mage (18-1) and #6 Kingsbarns(12-1).

May the horse be with you! – Head Bozo