SportsBozos Handicap the 150th Running of the Kentucky Derby

By sbozos_admin
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Updated: 05/03/2024

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Picking the winner of the Kentucky Derby is always more exciting than selecting the winner of a typical race, but picking the correct runners in exotic wagering is what can make the Kentucky Derby a life-changing race for gamblers.

Derby Handicapping begins with assessing the chances of all 20 horses entered and initially ruling out the ones unlikely to finish in the top three.
Beyer Speed Figures (BSF) are among the most useful handicapping tools in Kentucky Derby betting. The Beyer Speed Figure is calculated by looking at the several factors, including the final time and distance of the race, and the track variant, which is a measure of the inherent speed of the racetrack in question.
Of the last 32 Kentucky Derby winners, 28 of them had posted at least a 95 BSF leading up to the race (87.5%); 11 of the previous 14 posted a 100+ BSF. The average winning speed figure to win the recent Runs for the Roses is 103. There is a strong correlation between a horse’s best Beyer figure and winning the Kentucky Derby. Using these figures, the Head Bozo makes his prediction based on several factors, like the extra distance involved in the Derby, to project each horse’s speed figure in the race. So basically, we are weeding out the colts with projected speed figures less than 95. With the remaining contenders, we will compare their projected finish with their expected odds to determine the type and amount of wager.

Here’s the field in Post-Position order:

1. Dornoch, 20-1. Good Magic, Danny Gargan, Luis Saez, 4th Blue Grass (G1), 88, 6: 3-2-0, $552,275. Dornoch, whose full brother, Mage won this last year, broke his maiden at Keeneland during the fall meeting in 2023 and won his next two starts in graded stakes while racing on the lead. He beat Sierra Leone in the Remsen (G2) by a nose and won the Fountain of Youth (G2) at 1-5 in a weak field in his 2024 debut. In the Blue Grass he did not get to set the pace, finished fourth, and did not compete for the win. Expect him to try to get to the lead from the rail and fade out of contention. Projected Speed Figure 90, Unlikely to be knocking on any doors Saturday..

2. Sierra Leone, 3-1. Gun Runner, Chad Brown, Tyler Gaffalione, 1st Blue Grass, 98, 4: 3-1-0, $918,000. Post 2 has historically been a weak post-position, however Sierra Leone is a nose away from being undefeated in his four career starts. After his loss in the Remsen (G2), the son of Gun Runner won the Risen Star (G2) and the Blue Grass with deep closing runs from far off the pace. The preference for more forwardly placed horses to win the Derby has been reversed by the victories from Mage and Rich Strike the last two years. Both Chad Brown and Tyler Gaffalione are seeking their first Derby wins. Sierra Leone will treasure a fast pace, he don’t need no stinkin’ slow fractional times! If he stays out of trouble, he should be closing on his main rival, Fierceness, down the stretch.
Projected Speed Figure 103, 2nd Highest in the Race. He is the main contender to Fierceness and may even go off as the favorite.

3. Mystic Dan, 20-1. Goldencents, Kenny McPeek, Brian Hernandez Jr., 3rd Arkansas Derby (G1), 101, 6: 2-1-1, $641,360. Mystic Dan has the third highest speed figure in the field, 101, with the top two belonging to Fierceness. Mystic Dan got that big number on a sloppy and sealed track when he won the Southwest (G3). His races before and after the Southwest were on fast tracks, and he was not particularly competitive in either of them. So, if the track is wet, keep an eye on him. We called Lloyd Lindsay Young and the chance of rain is about 50%.
Projected Speed figure 96, a Possibility. If the track is WET my psychic recommends Mystic Dan.

4. Catching Freedom, 8-1. Constitution, Brad Cox, Flavien Prat, 1st Louisiana Derby (G2), 97 – 5: 3-0-1, $877,350. Catching Freedom is another late runner who found success on the Derby trail this year, picking up victories in the Louisiana Derby and the Smarty Jones. If he doesn’t get too far back, he has the ability to hit the board while passing tired horses in the stretch. A 97 speed rating for this closer puts him in the conversation. The odds may be too low for a win bet, but it would not be surprising to see him wave that flag, wave it wide and high.
Projected Speed figure 99, Rated 3rd in this Race.

5. Catalytic, 30-1. Catalina Cruiser, Saffie Joseph Jr., Jose Ortiz, 2nd Florida Derby (G1), 90 – 3: 1-2-0, $216,825. In the Florida Derby, he was second by 13 lengths to runaway winner Fierceness. It does not appear he will be competitive to convert in this race either.
Projected Speed Figure 88, Unlikely to hit the board.

6. Just Steel, 20-1. Justify, D. Wayne Lukas, Keith Asmussen, 2nd Arkansas Derby (G1), 11: 2-4-1, $724,545. Just Steel, trained by the Coach, 88-year-old D. Wayne Lukas, is the most experienced horse in the field. He began at Saratoga and raced seven times as a 2-year-old. This year he raced at Oaklawn and mustered the strength to finish second in three of the Derby preps at that track with stalking trips. His best race was the Arkansas Derby where he earned his top speed figure, 95.
Projected Speed figure 96, a Possibility.

7. Honor Marie, 20-1. Honor Code, Whit Beckman, Ben Curtis, 65, 2nd Louisiana Derby, 96 – 5: 2-2-0, $526,175. Honor Marie was a winner on the Derby trail as a 2-year-old in the Kentucky Jockey Club (G2) at Churchill. In his first start of 2024 he finished fifth in the Risen Star, which turned out to be a key race on the Derby trail with the top four finishers winning prep races. Honor Marie came back to run his best race when he rallied from the back of the field to finish second to Catching Freedom in the Louisiana Derby with his top speed figure. So, if you like Catching Freedom, you will get better odds on Honor Marie, who only finished a length behind him. By the way, it’s not true that Marie’s been dead for years. A Speed figure of 96 could put him in contention for a judgement coming down the stretch.
Projected Speed figure 97, a Possibility.

8. Just a Touch, 10-1. Justify, Brad Cox, Florent Geroux, 75, 2nd Blue Grass (G1), 96 – 3: 1-0-2, $281,700. Just a Touch looked like a winner at the stretch call of the 1 1/8-mile Blue Grass, where he had taken the lead after pressing the pace but was easily caught by the late charge of Sierra Leone. He held on to run a speed number of 96, if he can stretch out, I have a feeling he will be in the mix.
Projected Speed figure 98, a top 4 Rating.

9. Encino was SCRATCHED

10. T O Password, 30-1. Copano Rickey, Daisuke Takayanagi, Kazushi Kimura, Japan, 1st Fukurya, NA, 2: 2-0-0, $163,339. T O Password earned the Derby spot from the qualifying races that were run in Japan. He is clearly outclassed. And the Password is, NO.
Unable to evaluate a projected speed figure due to international races.

11. Forever Young, 10-1. Real Steel, Yoshito Yahagi, Ryusei Sakai, 100, 1st UAE Derby (G2), NA – 5: 5-0-0, $2,049,451. Forever Young prepped for the Derby by racing in the Mideast with wins in the Saudi Derby (G2) and then the UAE Derby. He tracked the pace in Dubai and then pulled away in the final 200 meters to pick up 100 points. Forever Young will try to become the first horse from Japan or from the UAE Derby to win the big race on the first Saturday in May. He does not want to perish like a fading horse. Another Japanese horse difficult to evaluate.
Unable to evaluate a projected speed figure due to international races. More likely than T O Password to run a competitive race. A horse who has won over $2 Million is certainly a Possibility.

12. Track Phantom, 20-1. Quality Road, Steve Asmussen, Joel Rosario – 70, 4th Louisiana Derby (G2), 94 – 7: 3-2-1, $405,000. Track Phantom won the two early Derby prep races at Fair Grounds and then set the pace in the Risen Star and finished second. He again was on the lead in the Louisiana Derby and ended up fourth. Although his last two races earned him an impressive 94 speed figure, his stamina needs to improve . Track Phantom has the look of a horse who may be underrated as he has the speed to be a factor at a big price. He could appear as a ghost unexpectedly near the front.
Projected Speed figure 95, a Possibility.

13. West Saratoga, 50-1. Exaggerator, Larry Demeritte, Jesus Castanon, 67, 2nd Jeff Ruby (G3), 85 – 10: 2-5-1, $460,140. West Saratoga won the Iroquois (G3) at Churchill. He was outrun when second in the Jeff Ruby and should not factor into a race of this caliber. If he hangs a ralph, we might see him this summer in upstate New York.
Projected Speed Figure 87, Unlikely to hit the board.

4. Endlessly, 30-1. Oscar Performance, Michael McCarthy, Umberto Rispoli, 100, 1st Jeff Ruby (G3), 91 – 6: 5-0-0, $707,200. Endlessly earned his spot in the Derby with his victory in the Jeff Ruby, running a 91 on the synthetic track at Turfway Park. He looked impressive circling the field and won five of six. I could go on forever. His presence might be felt in the stretch run.
Projected Speed figure 93, a Possibility.

15. Domestic Product, 30-1. Practical Joke, Chad Brown, Irad Ortiz Jr., 60, 1st Tampa Bay Derby (G3), 87 – 5: 2-1-0, $314,200. Born in the USA, Domestic Product is the other Chad Brown runner in the Derby, joining Sierra Leone. He last was seen in the winner’s circle after the Tampa Bay Derby (G3), in March though his speed figure (82) took a significant drop. His races do not stack up with the top contenders here.
Projected Speed Figure 88, Unlikely to hit the board.

16. Grand Mo the First, 50-1. Uncle Mo, Victor Barboza Jr., Emisael Jaramillo, 40, 3rd Florida Derby (G1), 87 – 6: 2-0-4, $214,650. Grand Mo the First won his first two starts on the Tapeta track at Gulfstream during the summer and since then finished third in four stakes races. The last two were in Derby points races in the Tampa Derby and the Florida Derby, where he lost by 16 lengths and only ran a speed figure of 87. He is simply too slow to consider. The track announcer may be calling, Grand Mo the last!
Projected Speed Figure 88, Unlikely to hit the board.

17. Fierceness, 5-2*. City of Light, Todd Pletcher, John Velazquez, 136, 1st Florida Derby (G1), 110 – 5: 3-0-1, $1,703,850. Strong and angry, Fierceness bounced back from his disappointing third-place finish in the Holy Bull (G3) with a brilliant 13 length victory in the Florida Derby. The 2-year-old champion extended his lead throughout the nine-furlong prep race, earning the highest speed figure in this field by far. That victory stamped him as the horse to beat and the likely favorite on the first Saturday in May as Todd Pletcher seeks his third Derby win and John Velazquez his fourth. The outside post position should provide a trouble-free start to the race.
Projected Speed Figure 108, the Highest projected speed figure in the Race. Based on his performances in last year’s G1 Breeders Cup Juvenile and the Florida Derby, Fierceness will probably be the deserving favorite and is the most likely winner.

18. Stronghold, 20-1. Ghostzapper, Philip D’Amato, Antonio Fresu, 125, 1st Santa Anita Derby (G1), 89, 6: 3-3-0, $827,200. Stronghold is a consistent colt, never worse than 2nd. He is the highest rated Derby contender from the West Coast, he has a powerful grasp in California. He showed his mettle with a recent stalking victory in the traditionally important prep race, the G1 Santa Anita Derby. That race came up weak this year however and the winning speed figure was only 89.
Projected Speed figure 93, a Possibility.

19. Resilience, 20-1. Into Mischief, Bill Mott, Junior Alvarado, 110, 1st Wood Memorial (G2), 90, 6: 2-1-1, $494,630. Resilience finished fourth behind three horses who were winners on the Kentucky Derby trail and in this race, including Sierra Leone. He came back to stalk the pace in the Wood Memorial and showed toughness winning by more than two lengths. A win with a 90-speed figure in a G2 prep race makes him interesting at long odds.
Projected Speed figure 93, a Possibility.

20. Society Man, 50-1. Good Magic, Danny Gargan, Frankie Dettori, 50, 2nd Wood Memorial (G1), 87, 5: 1-1-1, $196,705. The ever-popular Society Man surprisingly qualified after finishing second in the Wood Memorial at 106-1. Longshot does not have the speed figures, (87 and 82 in last two) to entice the Head Bozo into an exotics wager.
Projected Speed Figure 90, Unlikely to hit the board.

21. Epic Ride, 30-1. Uncle Mo, John Ennis, Adam Beschizza, 35, 3rd Blue Grass (G1), 90, 5: 2-2-1, $253,166. Epic Ride made the field when Encino Man scratched Tuesday. His jockey rallied him to finish 3rd in the Blue Grass, 5 lengths behind Sierra Leone. Speed figure of 90 and a 3rd in a G1 prep gives him a shot at finishing in the money.
Projected Speed Figure 90, Unlikely to hit the board.

AE22. Mugatu, 30-1. Blofeld, Jeff Engler, Joe Talamo, 14, 5th Blue Grass (G1), 12: 1-1-3, $80,570.
Projected Speed Figure 89, If there is a late scratch and he draws in, he is unlikely to hit the board.

Summary: There are only two horses projected to run a speed figure over 100, Fierceness (108) and Sierra Leone (103) and both are training well into the race. Both have top tier Trainers and Jockeys. The biggest winner at the post-position draw was the morning-line favorite Fierceness. Drawing to the far outside with the other speed horses to his inside greatly increased the chances that the Todd Pletcher runner would be able to have a trouble-free run into the first turn.

Sierra Leone is going to have to drop back from post position 2 and work out a trip through at least half of the field to get a chance to take advantage of his late running style.
The top win contenders in the 2024 Kentucky Derby are the speedy Fierceness, and the two horses packing the strongest closing punch, Sierra Leone, and Catching Freedom. The next three rated horses to consider for exactas and trifectas are Just a Touch, Honor Marie, and Just Steel.

The Bozos will be betting Fierceness to WIN and will be using Sierra Leone, Catching Freedom, Just a Touch, Honor Marie, and Just Steel in Exactas and Trifectas. In a 20-horse field, the exacta and trifecta payoffs can be extremely very high. The old 17-2 with the 4-8-7-6.

Enjoy the 150th running of the Kentucky Derby: Churchill Downs Race 12 Saturday May 4th 6:57 pm.

May the horse be with you!

-HB