Bozos Highly Motivated Derby Analysis

May 1. Kentucky Derby. Fans are back! Bozos are back in the saddle! Let’s take a look at the Derby…

1. Known Agenda (20-1)
Trainer: Todd Pletcher
Jockey: Irad Ortiz Jr.
Top-notch trainer and jockey got a raw deal ending up on the rail where it is easy to be pinched at the break and covered up during the race. No one wants this post as not since 1986 has the Derby winner won from the 1 post. The Florida Derby winner offers value at close to 20-1 and is a contender if he can manage a perfect trip. Sire Curlin was a beast. He could easily finish in the money if he gets a clear path.

2. Like the King (70-1)
Trainer: Wesley Ward
Jockey: Drayden Van Dyke
Huge longshot with low speed figures but quality breeding could close for a share if things go well but he is not getting any of my money. He should leave the building prior to the call for Riders Up.

3. Brooklyn Strong (70-1)
Trainer: Daniel Velazquez
Jockey: Umberto Rispoli
Slow horse would move up on a sloppy track. Faltered badly in a weak Wood Memorial. He does not figure to keep up with this bunch. My New York buddies like him so I hope he scores if I don’t. Take the A Train.

4. Keepmeinmind (65-1)
Trainer: Robertino Diodoro
Jockey: David Cohen
After a promising November, where he won the Kentucky BC on this track after losing in the Juvenile to the favorite, Essential Quality, by only two lengths, he has disappointed in two tries in 2021. It would be surprising if he reversed his form here.

5. Sainthood (50-1)
Trainer: Todd Pletcher
Jockey: Corey Lanerie
One of Pletcher’s other colts, he may be able to close into a hot pace, but it’s unlikely that he is fast enough to get to the line in time. Praying won’t help.

6. O Besos (50-1)
Trainer: Greg Foley
Jockey: Marcelino Pedroza
He closed for third in Louisiana two lengths back of Hot Rod Charlie. He is a possibility and might be worth a shot. A kiss in the dark? Nope.

7. Mandaloun (50-1)
Trainer: Brad Cox
Jockey: Florent Geroux
Into Mischief colt won the prep race in Louisiana but bombed as the favorite last time out. Not good news coming into a race like this.

8. Medina Spirit (18-1)
Trainer: Bob Baffert
Jockey: John Velazquez
Bob Baffert. Johnny V. What can I say? Two legends in charge. However, he laid an egg in the Santa Anita Derby as the even money favorite. This does not instill a lot of confidence. Like Known Agenda, a ticket on this guy gets you excellent value.

9. Hot Rod Charlie (6-1)
Trainer: Doug O’Neill
Jockey: Flavien Prat
Louisiana Derby winner wire to wire had an easy trip. He lost to Essential Quality last fall by only ¾ lengths. Probable second or third choice of the experts in the betting. I’ll take a chance and throw him out as I have a feeling he’ll be shuffled back early and won’t be able to recover. Pulls over with a Flat.

10. Midnight Bourbon (20-1)
Trainer: Steve Asmussen
Jockey: Mike Smith
Asmussen colt is a consistent runner and could be in the mix, he has some class and likes to be near the lead. Possibility. Midnight Bourbon, I’ve been there. Three fingers.

11. Dynamic One (50-1)
Trainer: Todd Pletcher
Jockey: Jose Ortiz
Randy Moss likes this New York trained horse because of his nice middle move in the Wood. There are many expectations for this well-bred (Union Rags) horse with solid connections. I see him in the mix running late.

12. Helium (60-1)
Trainer: Mark Casse
Jockey: Julien Leparoux
I’m going to hold my breath this surprise winner of the Tampa Bay Derby runs out of gas. Optimistic attempt here.

13. Hidden Stash (50-1)
Trainer: Vicki Oliver
Jockey: Rafael Bejarano
Slow-footed entry would shock the world with a win here. He should have stayed in the Bob Marley cigar box.

14. Essential Quality (6-5)
Trainer: Brad Cox
Jockey: Luis Saez
Undefeated at 5-5, this Breeders Cup Juvenile and 2-year-old champion has been nothing less than superb. He won a tight Blue Grass by a neck over Highly Motivated while earning his third straight high 90’s Beyer figure. The son of Tapit has earned a whopping $2.2 million in only five starts. In an unusual situation, the win payoff will be lowered as Mattress Mack is supposedly betting several million dollars on him to win in an advertising stunt. This should not affect the exacta and trifecta payoffs however. He is so consistent that I have to include him in all my exotic wagers. He is the most likely winner but with 18 other horses to deal with, virtually anything is possible.

15. Rock Your World (4-1)
Trainer: John Sadler
Jockey: Joel Rosario
Rock Your World owns the only triple digit speed figure in the field and has finished first in all three of his races. But, and a big but it is, he is facing a brutal test here in only his second start on dirt. He offers little value at 4-1 and I’m going to make him prove his Santa Anita upset of Medina Spring was no fluke. Dangerously leaving him out.

16. King Fury was SCRATCHED Friday. I don’t know why and I don’t really care.

17. Highly Motivated (18-1)

Trainer: Chad Brown
Jockey: Javier Castellano
I’ve sat next to Chad Brown a couple of times at Gulfstream and watched him stroll to the Winner’s Circle all too often. A ridiculously successful trainer who is all class. Rider Javier Castellano is a personal favorite of mine after winning the Marty Ryan Memorial aboard Palm Springs in 2019. Highly Motivated led the Blue Grass until the last few strides and fought a gallant battle down the stretch with the even money favorite here, Essential Quality, and lost by a mere neck. Besides offering obvious value at 18-1, this Into Mischief colt is versatile and will be both near the pace and close on the leaders. The curse of #17 ends! Bozo’s pick! Exacta and trifecta payoffs will be generous if he’s in the top two.

18. Super Stock (50-1)
Trainer: Steve Asmussen
Jockey: Ricardo Santana Jr.
Arkansas Derby winner will give a valiant effort but he may be too far back to make a difference in the outcome of this race. At 50-1, he’s another one who wouldn’t surprise me if he hits the board. He’ll have to do it without me however. I only have Short interest.

19. Soup and Sandwich (40-1)
Trainer: Mark Casse
Jockey: Tyler Gaffalione
A lightly raced colt, he finished 2nd in the Florida Derby to Known Agenda. It looks like his best chance comes if he gets the lead and out of the 18 hole, that’s unlikely. Now get back in the kitchen!

20. Bourbonic (40-1)
Trainer: Todd Pletcher
Jockey: Kendrick Carmouche
He came from far back to beat Dynamic One by a head to win the Wood at 72-1, a repeat effort is unlikely from this post. Another horse with Bourbon in his name? Hmmmm.

The Wager

As indicated above the value offered by #17 Highly Motivated at 18-1 is difficult to pass up. His last race puts him in a photo here. If he gets a good break, he can threaten the whole way.

#14 Essential Quality is perfect so until he proves otherwise, he is in my boxes.

#8 Medina Spring with Johnny V. has earned another chance and #1 Known Agenda may be Pletcher’s darling who overcomes the rail bias.
#11 Dynamic One has an intriguing closing kick and #10 Midnight Bourbon, besides bringing back some painful memories deserves to be on a ticket.

#17 Highly Motivated across the board

Exacta and Trifecta Boxes

17-14-1-8
17-14-10-11

Let it Roll Baby Roll!!!